Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction 1/4/26 Today’s NFL Picks

The Kansas City Chiefs and the Las Vegas Raiders meet in week 18 NFL action from Allegiant Stadium on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders prediction.

Kansas City Chiefs Recap

The Kansas City Chiefs come into this game looking to bounce back from their 20-13 loss at the hands of the Denver Broncos last time out to sit at 6-10 on the year.

Chiefs Looking To Finish Season On High Note Amidst Disappointing Campaign

Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 3,587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on 62.7% passing while also rushing for 422 yards and 5 TDs, but is out for the rest of the season because of injury. Kareem Hunt has rushed for a team-high 597 yards and 8 TDs while Isiah Pacheco has rushed for 462 yards. Travis Kelce leads the Chiefs with 73 catches for 839 yards and 5 TDs while Rashee Rice has 571 receiving yards with 5 TDs and Hollywood Brown has 523 receiving yards with 5 TDs as well. Xavier Worthy has 532 receiving yards and Tyquan Thornton has 438 receiving yards while JuJu Smith-Schuster has 332 receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Nick Bolton leads the Chiefs with 145 total tackles while George Karlaftis has a team-high 6 sacks. As a unit, Kansas City’s defense has combined for 32 sacks and 9 interceptions so far this season.

Las Vegas Raiders Recap

The Las Vegas Raiders come into this game looking to bounce back from a 34-10 loss at the hands of the New York Giants last time out to sit at 2-14 this season. 

Raiders Aiming For First Overall Pick In Draft

Geno Smith has thrown for 3,025 yards, 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions on 67.4% passing while Ashton Jeanty has rushed for 888 yards and 5 touchdowns this season. Brock Bowers leads the Raiders in receiving with 64 catches for 680 yards and 7 touchdowns and Tre Tucker has 666 receiving yards and 5 TDs with 50 grabs. Jeanty has 339 receiving yards and 5 TDs and three more Raiders have 200+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Devin White has a team-high 168 total tackles while Maxx Crosby has a team-high 10 sacks and Jonah Laulu has 4 sacks. As a unit, Las Vegas has combined for 29 sacks and 8 interceptions so far this season.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders Betting Trends: Week 18

Why the Las Vegas Raiders will win

• The Chiefs have lost each of their last five games as favorites without Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
• The underdogs have won four of the Chiefs’ last five games.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Chiefs’ last eight games.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games as favorites.
• The Chiefs have lost the first quarter in four of their last six games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Chiefs have lost the first half in three of their last four games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win

• The Chiefs have won each of their last 16 games played on the West Coast.
• The Raiders have lost each of their last 11 games against AFC West opponents.
• The Raiders have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Chiefs have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games played on the West Coast.
• The Raiders have lost the first quarter in each of their last two games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Chiefs have won the first half in each of their last eight January games as favorites.
• The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four games against the Raiders.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Chiefs’ last nine Sunday games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Raiders’ last seven Sunday games as home underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
• Four of the last five games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total points line.

Las Vegas Raiders Player Prop Facts

• Ashton Jeanty has scored a touchdown in three of the Raiders’ last four home games against AFC opponents.
• Ashton Jeanty has recorded 30+ receiving yards in three of the Raiders’ last four games against AFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 18, Tre Tucker has recorded the equal-most receiving touchdowns in a single game this season (3 vs Commanders, Week 3).

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Travis Kelce has scored at least one touchdown in four of his last five January road appearances.
• Noah Gray has recorded 22+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last four games played on the West Coast.
• Dameon Pierce has recorded 41+ rushing and receiving yards in four of his five previous regular season appearances against AFC West opponents.
• Dameon Pierce has recorded 41+ rushing yards in four of his five previous regular season appearances against AFC West opponents.
• Heading into Week 18, Harrison Butker ranks T6th in the NFL in made field goals (29) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 18, the Raiders rank 32nd in the NFL in points per game (14.2) this season.
• Heading into Week 18, the Raiders rank 32nd in the NFL in yards per game (247.8) this season.
• Heading into Week 18, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage against (28.6%) this season.
• Heading into Week 18, the Chiefs have suffered the equal-most losses when leading at HT this season (5).

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction

I’m on the under here. The Chiefs’ offense should be relatively ineffective once again with Chris Oladokun at QB, and I don’t trust the Raiders here to do much of anything with the first overall pick in sight with a loss here. This just feels like a game where both teams muck around between the 20s so give me the under here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Under 36.5