Las Vegas Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction 10/5/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

The Las Vegas Raiders and the Indianapolis Colts meet Sunday in NFL action from Lucas Oil Stadium. Here’s a Raiders vs Colts prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Raiders vs Colts pick. We will examine:

The Las Vegas Raiders recent form and player performance

The Indianapolis Colts recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Las Vegas Raiders

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Indianapolis Colts

Recent betting trends in games played between the Raiders and Colts

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Raiders vs Colts game

Las Vegas Raiders Betting Preview

Las Vegas was able to open up the 2025 campaign with a victory, but things haven’t gone very well since then. The Raiders took out the New England Patriots 20-13 on September 7, then fell 20-9 versus the rival Chargers the next week. Game three was Las Vegas’ biggest loss to date, as they were beaten 41-24 by the Washington Commanders. The Raiders gave up 400 yards in that one, including 201 rush yards, 7.4 yards per play and a 5-of-10 success rate on third-down tries.

In their latest matchup versus the Chicago Bears last weekend, Las Vegas took yet another defeat. The Raiders carried a 21-16 edge into the final quarter, but were outscored 9-3 from there in a tough 25-24 loss. QB Geno Smith logged a 14-of-21 line for 117 yards, two scores and three picks, while Ashton Jeanty carried 21 times for 138 yards and a score to lead the rush. Brock Bowers caught five balls for 46 yards as the team’s leading receiver in the loss.

Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview

Over on the Colts’ side, they got off to a nice start this year with three straight wins. Indianapolis demolished the Miami Dolphins in a home victory 33-8 in the opener, then took out the Denver Broncos in a tight one 29-28. The Colts would keep it going in Week 3 versus the Tennessee Titans, securing a 41-20 victory thanks in part to 17 first-quarter points. Indy managed 365 yards on offense with 6.9 yards per play but didn’t do very well on third downs with a 2-of-8 success rate.

The Colts took their first defeat of the year last weekend in a road matchup against the Los Angeles Rams. Indianapolis was down by three points heading into the final quarter, then got outscored 14-10 from there to seal a 27-20 result. QB Daniel Jones was 24-of-33 for 262 yards, one TD and two interceptions. Jonathan Taylor topped the rushers with 17 carries for 76 yards, and Adonai Mitchell was the team’s leading receiver with three catches for 96 yards.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends: Week 5

Why the Indianapolis Colts will win

The Colts have won each of their last seven home games against AFC opponents on a losing streak.
The Raiders have lost each of their last seven road games in October.
The Colts have covered the spread in each of their last six Week 5 games at Lucas Oil Stadium.
The Raiders have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games as underdogs.
The Raiders have lost the first quarter in each of their last three games against AFC South opponents.
The favorites have won the first half in 16 of the Raiders’ last 17 games.

Why the Las Vegas Raiders will win

The road team has won five of the last six games between the Raiders and Colts.
The Raiders have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games as road underdogs against AFC South opponents.
The Colts have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as home favorites against AFC West opponents.
The Raiders have won the first half in each of their last three October games as underdogs against AFC South opponents.
The Colts have lost the first quarter in each of their last three October games as home favorites against AFC opponents.

Total Points Facts

Eight of the Colts’ last nine home games following a loss have gone OVER the total points line.
Five of the Raiders’ last six Week 5 games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Raiders vs Colts Prediction

I’m going to stay with the Colts. Indianapolis is coming off a tough road loss versus the Rams, but the good news is that the Colts were able to hang around and stay competitive the whole game despite some mistakes. Indy managed 333 total yards (85 rushing) with 5.9 yards per play and just 17 first downs in the defeat, but the real issues came from the three turnovers, the 11 penalties for 88 yards and the 4-of-12 success rate on third-down conversions. It was the Colts’ first time scoring fewer than 29 points through four games this season so far.

As for the Raiders, they gave away a potential home win versus a vulnerable Bears team last weekend thanks to some mistakes of their own. Las Vegas coughed up four turnovers (three picks) and wend just 2-of-8 on third downs. Needless to say, both teams have some cleaning up to do ahead of this weekend’s matchup. That said, I like the Colts to rebound a little better in a home outing.