Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans Prediction 12/21/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

The Kansas City Chiefs and the Tennessee Titans meet in week 16 NFL action from Nissan Stadium on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans prediction.

Kansas City Chiefs Recap

The Kansas City Chiefs come into this game looking to finish with some pride after a 16-13 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers dropped them to 6-8 this season. After this game, Kansas City will head home for a game against the Denver Broncos.

Chiefs Eliminated From Playoffs For First Time In A Long Time

Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 3,587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on 62.7% passing while also rushing for 422 yards and 5 TDs, but is out for the rest of the season because of injury. Kareem Hunt has rushed for a team-high 557 yards and 8 TDs while Isiah Pacheco has rushed for 396 yards. Travis Kelce leads the Chiefs with 67 catches for 797 yards and 5 TDs while Rashee Rice has 571 receiving yards with 5 TDs and Hollywood Brown has 494 receiving yards with 5 TDs as well. Xavier Worthy has 491 receiving yards and Tyquan Thornton has 438 receiving yards while JuJu Smith-Schuster has 304 receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Nick Bolton leads the Chiefs with 123 total tackles while George Karlaftis has a team-high 6 sacks. As a unit, Kansas City’s defense has combined for 29 sacks and 8 interceptions so far this season.

Tennessee Titans Recap

The Tennessee Titans come into this game looking to bounce back from a 37-24 loss to San Francisco last time out to slip to 2-12 this season. After this game, Tennessee will take on the New Orleans Saints at home.

Titans Lose 8 Of Last 9

Cam Ward has thrown for 2,638 yards, 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on 59.3% passing while Tony Pollard has 847 rushing yards and 5 TDs to lead the Titans in rushing. Chig Okonkwo has a team-high 45 catches for 459 yards while Elic Ayomanor has 31 grabs for 370 yards and 3 TDs. Calvin Ridley has 303 receiving yards and Gunnar Helm has 347 receiving yards. Chimere Dike has 301 receiving yards with 3 TDs while two more Titans have 200+ receiving yards. On defense, Cedric Gray has a team-high 144 total tackles including 85 solo tackles while Jeffery Simmons has a team-high 9 sacks. Dre’Mont Jones and Jihad Ward each have 4.5 sacks apiece while Cody Barton has a team-high 3 interceptions. As a unit, Tennessee’s defense has combined for 34 sacks and 6 interceptions so far this season.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans Betting Trends: Week 16

Why the Tennessee Titans will win

• The Chiefs have lost each of their last four games as favorites without Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
• The Titans have won each of their last four games as home underdogs against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine games without Isiah Pacheco.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Chiefs’ last six games.
• The Titans have won the first half in six of their last seven games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
• The Titans have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five Week 16 home games.
• The Chiefs have lost the first quarter in four of their last five games as favorites against AFC opponents.

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win

• The Titans have lost each of their last 11 home games.
• The Chiefs have won each of their last 11 road games following a home loss.
• The Titans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight home games in December.
• The Chiefs have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 road games following a home loss.
• The Chiefs have won the first quarter in each of their last four games following a home loss.
• The Titans have lost the first half in 13 of their last 14 games against AFC opponents.
• The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four Week 16 games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Chiefs’ last eight Sunday games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Titans’ last five December games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.

Tennessee Titans Player Prop Facts

• Tony Pollard has scored at least one touchdown in three of his last four December appearances.
• Tyjae Spears has recorded 27+ rushing yards in each of the Titans’ last five home games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
• Cam Ward has recorded 19+ completions in six of the Titans’ last seven home games.
• Tyjae Spears has recorded 50+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his four previous appearances against AFC West opponents.
• Tyjae Spears has recorded 29+ receiving yards in four of the Titans’ last five December games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 16, Chimere Dike ranks 1st in the NFL in kick return yards (1413) this season.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Kareem Hunt has scored two touchdowns in three of his last four road appearances against AFC South opponents.
• Kareem Hunt has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last nine appearances against AFC South opponents.
• Kareem Hunt has recorded 34+ rushing yards in each of his 12 previous Sunday regular season appearances with the Chiefs as road favorites.
• Gardner Minshew II has recorded 226+ passing yards in each of his last four December road appearances against AFC opponents.
• Travis Kelce has recorded 58+ receiving yards in eight of the Chiefs’ last nine road games against AFC South opponents.
• Gardner Minshew II has recorded 23+ completions in five of his six previous road appearances against AFC South opponents.
• Kareem Hunt has recorded 44+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his 12 previous Sunday regular season appearances with the Chiefs as road favorites.
• Heading into Week 16, Isiah Pacheco ranks 3rd in the league amongst qualified players for broken tackle percentage (50.5%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 16, the Titans rank 32nd in the NFL in forced fumbles (4) this season.
• Heading into Week 16, the Titans rank 1st in the NFL in average punt return (18.9 yards) this season.
• Heading into Week 16, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage (75.9%) this season.
• Heading into Week 16, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage against (27.8%) this season.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tennessee Titans Prediction

I’m on the under here. I think the Chiefs would like to show some pride down the stretch, but you have to wonder where this team is at mentally after being eliminated from the playoffs after three straight super bowl appearances and the downgrade from Mahomes to Gardner Minshew is enormous. On the flipside, Tennessee hasn’t been anything special offensively this season and I don’t expect much from them on a game-to-game basis, let alone here. Give me the under in this one.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Under 37.5