Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders Prediction 10/4/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

The Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders meet Sunday in NFL action at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Here’s an Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders Prediction. This article will include an Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders Pick.

Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview

The Indianapolis Colts lost to the Chiefs, beat the Texans, and they play the Steelers next. The Indianapolis Colts have lost 9 of their last 10 games. Daniel Jones is completing 66.3 percent of his passes for 611 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Josh Downs and Keenan Allen have combined for 286 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while Tyler Warren has 18 receptions.

The Indianapolis Colts ground game is averaging 103.3 yards per contest, and Jonathan Taylor leads the way with 258 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, Indianapolis is allowing 30.3 points and 417.3 yards per game. Akeem Davis-Gaither leads the Indianapolis Colts with 29 tackles; DeForest Buckner has 3 sacks, and Sauce Gardner has 3 pass deflections.

Washington Commanders Betting Preview

The Washington Commanders lost to the Cowboys, beat the Seahawks, and they play the Giants next. The Washington Commanders have lost 12 of their last 15 games. Marcus Mariota is completing 63.8 percent of his passes for 294 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs have combined for 276 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, while Antonio Williams has 9 receptions.

The Washington Commanders’ ground game is averaging 132 yards per contest, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt leads the way with 142 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, Washington is allowing 30.7 points and 362.3 yards per game. Jeremy Reaves leads the Washington Commanders with 20 tackles, Sonny Styles has 1 sack, and Kain Medrano has 1 interception.

Why the Washington Commanders will win

• The Colts have lost nine of their last 10 games.
• The underdogs have won each of the last two games between the Colts and Commanders.
• The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last four games as underdogs without Marcus Mariota.
• The Colts have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games against NFC East opponents.
• The Commanders have won the first half in four of their last five October games against the Colts.

Why the Indianapolis Colts will win

• The Commanders have lost six of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Colts have won each of their last seven Sunday games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Colts have covered the spread in five of their last six Sunday games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games following a win.
• The Colts have won the first quarter in four of their last five games against the Commanders following a win.
• The Commanders have lost the first half in four of their last five games as underdogs following a win.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Commanders’ last seven games has gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Colts’ last three games against NFC East opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Washington Commanders Player Prop Facts

• Austin Ekeler has scored two or more touchdowns in three of his last four Week 4 appearances.
• Austin Ekeler has scored at least one touchdown in six of his last seven appearances against AFC South opponents.
• Marcus Mariota has recorded 28+ rushing yards in each of his last five October appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Marcus Mariota has recorded 213+ passing yards in each of the Commanders’ last three games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• Marcus Mariota has recorded 20+ completions in each of the Commanders’ last three games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• Stefon Diggs has recorded 69+ receiving yards in each of his six previous October appearances against AFC South opponents.
• Stefon Diggs has recorded 69+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his six previous October appearances against AFC South opponents.
• Heading into Week 4, Tim Settle ranks T2nd in the league for fumbles recovered (1) this season.

Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Facts

• Josh Downs has scored a touchdown in each of the Colts’ last three games as favorites following a win.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 228+ passing yards in four of the Colts’ last five games as favorites following a win.
• Darius Slayton has recorded 23+ receiving yards in 11 of his last 12 Sunday appearances.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 20+ rushing yards in each of his last eight October appearances against NFC opponents.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 21+ completions in 11 of his last 13 appearances following a win.
• Heading into Week 4, Rigoberto Sanchez ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for gross average yards per punt (50.9) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 4, the Commanders have recorded a higher time of possession than their opponents in three games this season – equal-most in the league.
• Heading into Week 4, the Commanders have allowed an average of 34.0 points over their last two games – most in the league over that span.
• Heading into Week 4, the Colts have scored the first touchdown in seven consecutive games- the longest streak in the league.
• Heading into Week 4, the Colts have allowed an average of 32.3 points over their last four games – most in the league over that span.

Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders Prediction

The Colts are going to be favored because they have their starting quarterback. The Commanders have a bad secondary and are rolling out Mariota. Not ideal. However, let’s not act like the Colts are lighting the world on fire in any area, and they’re 32nd in total defense and 30th in scoring defense. The Colts haven’t been able to stop anybody, and it’s a good landing spot for Mariota to settle in. Also, I like free points in these international games. You never know how the travel impacts guys; the field can be weird, and we often see wacky results in these games. Give me the points with the Commanders.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Washington +4.5