Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction 9/27/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Texans vs Colts Prediction for this NFL Week 3 game on Sunday, September 27th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Indianapolis Colts Preview

The Indianapolis Colts have a 0-2 record this season and are coming off a 30-33 road loss against the Kansas City Chiefs. They will face the Commanders, the Steelers and the Titans next. Offensively, the Colts average 26.5 points per game, ranking 10th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 37 points per game, which is 32nd. Indianapolis averages 290 total yards per game (179.5 passing and 110.5 rushing), while allowing 514.5 total yards per game (181 rushing and 333.5 passing).

Daniel Jones leads the Colts with 359 passing yards with 66.1% completed passes and two touchdowns. Jonathan Taylor leads the team in rushing yards with 190, while Josh Downs caught 9 passes for a team-high 109 receiving yards. Defensively, DeForest Buckner and Hunter Wohler have a team-high 16 total tackles each (12 and eight of them solo respectively).

Houston Texans Preview

The Houston Texans have a 0-2 record this season and are coming off a 6-20 home loss against the Cincinnati Bengals. They will face the Cowboys, the Titans and the Jaguars next. Offensively, the Texans average 18.5 points per game, ranking 21st in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 28 points per game, which is 24th. Houston averages 377.5 total yards per game (285.5 passing and 92 rushing), while allowing 338 total yards per game (81 rushing and 257 passing).

C.J. Stroud leads the Texans with 571 passing yards with 60.2% completed passes and two touchdowns. David Montgomery leads the team in rushing yards with 67, while Dalton Schultz caught 16 passes for a team-high 175 receiving yards. Defensively, Azeez Al-Shaair has a team-high 20 total tackles (11 of them solo).

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends: Week 3

Why the Indianapolis Colts will win

• The Colts have won each of their last nine home games against AFC opponents on a losing streak.
• The Texans have lost seven of their last eight road openers.
• The Colts have covered the spread in each of their last six Week 3 home games.
• The Texans have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games in September.
• The underdogs have won the first quarter in each of the last four games between the Texans and Colts.
• The Colts have won the first half in seven of their last eight games at Lucas Oil Stadium against teams that held a losing record.
• The Colts have scored the first touchdown in each of their last nine games as underdogs.

Why the Houston Texans will win

• The Colts have lost each of their last nine games.
• The Texans have won each of their last eight games against opponents on a losing streak.
• The road team has covered the spread in each of the Colts’ last six games.
• The Colts have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four home games.
• The road team has won the first quarter in eight of the last nine games between the Texans and Colts.
• The Colts have lost the first half in each of their last seven games as home underdogs following a road loss.
• The Texans have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games as road favorites.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Texans’ last six September games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Colts’ last five September games as home underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of the last six games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total points line.

Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Facts

• Daniel Jones has recorded 22+ completions in five of his last six September appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 267+ passing yards in four of his five previous September home appearances against AFC opponents.
• Anthony Richardson has scored at least one touchdown in four of his five previous appearances with the Colts as underdogs following a loss.
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has recorded 23+ receiving yards in each of his last four appearances against the Texans.
• Heading into Week 3, Akeem Davis-Gaither has played in the equal-most consecutive losses in the league (11).

Houston Texans Player Prop Facts

• C.J. Stroud has recorded 22+ completions in each of the Texans’ last six September games against AFC opponents.
• C.J. Stroud has recorded 12+ rushing yards in each of the Texans’ last six September road games.
• David Montgomery has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four appearances against AFC South opponents.
• C.J. Stroud has recorded 242+ passing yards in each of his last four appearances with the Texans as road favorites.
• Woody Marks has recorded 48+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Texans’ last five games against AFC South opponents.
• David Montgomery has recorded 13+ receiving yards in seven of his last eight appearances against conference opponents.
• Heading into Week 3, David Montgomery ranks T1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 3, the Colts rank 32nd in the NFL in points allowed per game (37.0) this season.
• Heading into Week 3, the Colts rank 32nd in the NFL in yards allowed per game (514.5) this season.
• Heading into Week 3, the Texans rank 1st in the NFL in 4th down attempts (6) this season.
• Heading into Week 3, the Texans rank T1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage against (0.0%) this season.

Texans vs Colts Prediction

In this Texans vs Colts Prediction, the Texans are coming as -1.5 road favorites. Both teams have been winless this season and both have been playing terrible defense, allowing 65 ppg combined, with the Colts having the worst defense in the NFL. I don’t trust either side on this matchup and I don’t expect both defenses to suddenly step up. Both teams are 3-1 to the over in their four games combined this season and their previous meeting back in January also went over the total with 68 total points. Take the over 42.5 points in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Over 42.5