Falcons vs Saints Prediction 11/23/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Falcons vs Saints prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, November 23rd at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 12 matchup.

Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview

The Atlanta Falcons are 3-7 this year after they lost to Carolina in overtime by a score of 30-27 in their last game. Atlanta led 21-10 at halftime, but they needed a field goal late in the fourth to tie the game, before losing in overtime. The Falcons were out gained by a total of 486-348, went 4-11 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 1-0 in the game. Michael Penix Jr went 13-16 for 175 yards, while Bijan Robinson rushed 23 times for 104 yards and two scores. Drake London led the receivers with seven receptions for 119 yards in the loss. The Atlanta defense recorded five sacks and six tackles for loss in the game. 

Prior to that game, Atlanta lost to the Colts by a score of 31-25 and the Patriots by a score of 24-23. The Falcons have lost five games in a row and they are currently third in the NFC South standings. Atlanta has scored 19.5 points per game with 212.6 passing yards and 119.9 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 23.9 points against per game this season. Michael Penix Jr was hurt in their last game, so we will see Kirk Cousins under center here, while Bijan Robinson has rushed for 783 yards and four scores on 158 carries this year. 

New Orleans Saints Betting Preview

The New Orleans Saints are 2-8 this season after they defeated Carolina by a score of 17-7 in their last game. New Orleans led 10-7 at halftime and their defense pitched a shutout in the second half for the upset win. The Saints out gained Carolina by a total of 388-175, went 8-17 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a margin of 2-1 in the game. Tyler Shough went 19-27 for 282 yards and two touchdowns, while Alvin Kamara rushed 22 times for 83 yards. Chris Olave led the receivers with five catches for 104 yards and one score in the win. The NO defense recorded two sacks and four tackles for loss in the game. 

Prior to that game, New Orleans lost to the Rams by a score of 34-10 and the Buccaneers by a score of 23-3. The Saints have lost four of their last five games and they are currently last in the NFC South standings. New Orleans has scored 15.5 points per game with 204.4 passing yards and 92.8 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 25.0 points against per game this season. Tyler Shough has thrown for 586 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Chris Olave has 60 receptions for 664 yards and four scores this season. 

Why the Atlanta Falcons will win

• The Saints have lost each of their last three November games as favorites against NFC South opponents.
• The Falcons have won each of their last two November games as underdogs against the Saints.
• The Saints have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games when playing with a rest advantage.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in five of the last six games between the Falcons and Saints.
• The Falcons have won the first half in three of their last four games as underdogs.
• The Falcons have won the first quarter in each of their last two games as underdogs against the Saints.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Saints’ last six Sunday games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of the Falcons’ last eight November games as underdogs against NFC South opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of the last five Sunday games at Caesars Superdome have gone UNDER the total points line.

New Orleans Saints Player Prop Facts

• Brandin Cooks has scored at least one touchdown in seven of his eight previous November appearances as home favorites against NFC opponents.
• Taysom Hill has recorded 12+ rushing yards in 16 of his last 17 appearances following a road win.
• Spencer Rattler has recorded 218+ passing yards in three of his last four appearances against NFC opponents.
• Brandin Cooks has recorded 31+ receiving yards in each of his 11 previous appearances with the Saints as favorites following a win.
• Alvin Kamara has recorded 55+ rushing and receiving yards in 18 of his last 19 appearances with the Saints as favorites.
• Heading into Week 12, Pete Werner ranks T1st in the league for fumbles recovered (2) this season.

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

• Bijan Robinson has scored two touchdowns in three of the Falcons’ last four November games against NFC opponents.
• Tyler Allgeier has scored at least one touchdown in five of the Falcons’ last six games following a loss.
• Bijan Robinson has recorded 90+ rushing yards in each of the Falcons’ last four games as road underdogs against NFC opponents.
• Kirk Cousins has recorded 274+ passing yards in four of his last five appearances with his team as an underdog against NFC opponents.
• Darnell Mooney has recorded 34+ receiving yards in each of his last seven appearances against NFC South opponents.
• Darnell Mooney has recorded 38+ rushing and receiving yards in seven of his last eight appearances against division opponents.
• Kirk Cousins has recorded 23+ completions in four of his last five appearances with his team as an underdog against NFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 12, Drake London has recorded the equal-most receiving touchdowns in a single game this season (3 vs Patriots, Week 9).

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 12, the Saints have suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of 10+ points this season (4).
• Heading into Week 12, the Saints rank 32nd in the NFL in Q1 points per game (1.9) this season.
• Heading into Week 12, the Falcons have played in the equal-highest number of games that went to overtime this season (2).
• Heading into Week 12, the Falcons have suffered the equal-most losses by a margin of 10 points or less this season (5).

Falcons vs Saints Prediction 

New Orleans was able to snap their losing streak with a win over Carolina last time out and they will look to make it two in a row here. The Saints are coming off of a bye week, so they should be pretty healthy heading into this game. Atlanta has lost five games in a row, but their last three have been by a combined 10 points. The Falcons have one of the best running backs in the NFL, but they will have Cousins under center, as Penix Jr is hurt. I have my doubts about Kirk Cousins, but I still think the Falcons are the better play. Take Atlanta on the road.

David Racey is 66-42 (61%) in the NFL this season and he is currently #1 on the NFL Leaderboard. Click here for his premium plays for this week!

David Racey's Pick: Falcons ML