Dolphins vs Colts Prediction 11/15/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

Dolphins vs Colts Prediction

I’m not excited to get behind the Dolphins with McCord at quarterback. He’s never thrown an NFL pass and doesn’t have a chance to ease into things on the road. However, the fact that this line is this small tells you what oddsmakers feel about this game. They don’t seem too concerned about the QB change. That’s for a couple of reasons. One, the Dolphins’ offense wasn’t great with Willis anyway, so a quarterback change can’t hurt things. Also, the Colts are 28th in total defense, 30th in rush defense, and 30th in scoring defense.

If there was a game for the Dolphins to have some offensive success regardless of quarterback, it’s this one. The Dolphins have also been competitive despite the lack of results. The defense has been solid, and if the offense did anything, they’d have more than one win right now. The Dolphins were in those games against the Chiefs, Vikings, Bengals, Patriots, and Lions. It has to be Dolphins or pass for me in this spot.

Miami Dolphins Betting Preview

The Miami Dolphins lost to the Patriots and Lions, and they play the Bills next. The Dolphins have lost 7 of their last 8 games. Malik Willis is completing 58.2 percent of his passes for 1,396 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Kyle McCord will make his first NFL start after Willis has been ruled out with a groin issue. Malik Washington has 350 yards and 1 touchdown on 33 catches. Greg Dulcich has 270 yards on 24 catches. Caleb Douglas has 296 yards and 2 touchdowns on 19 catches.

The Miami Dolphins ground game is averaging 117.5 yards per contest, and Ollie Gordon II leads the way with 463 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, Miami is allowing 25 points and 326.1 yards per game. Jacob Rodriguez leads the Dolphins with 79 tackles. Chop Robinson has 4 sacks. Michael Taaffe has 2 interceptions.

Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview

The Indianapolis Colts lost to the Jaguars and Cowboys, and they play the Texans next. The Indianapolis Colts have lost 5 straight games. Daniel Jones is completing 60.3 percent of his passes for 1,722 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Jones has been sacked 24 times this season. Josh Downs has 354 yards and 1 touchdown on 33 catches. Jonathan Taylor has 220 yards on 26 catches. Tyler Warren has 275 yards and 2 touchdowns on 38 catches.

The Indianapolis Colts’ ground game is averaging 115.2 yards per contest, and Jonathan Taylor leads the way with 656 yards and 8 touchdowns. Defensively, Indianapolis is allowing 27.7 points and 361.8 yards per game. Akeem Davis-Gaither leads the Colts with 65 tackles. DeForest Buckner has 4 sacks. Cam Bynum has 1 interception.

Why the Indianapolis Colts will win

• The Colts have won 10 of their last 11 home games against AFC opponents on a losing streak.
• The Dolphins have lost eight of their last nine Sunday games.
• The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against AFC South opponents.
• The Colts have covered the spread in six of their last seven games as favorites against AFC East opponents.
• The Dolphins have lost the first half in six of their last seven games as underdogs following a loss.
• The Colts have won the first quarter in four of their last five Week 10 games.

Why the Miami Dolphins will win

• The Colts have lost each of their last four games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Dolphins have won each of their last six Week 10 games.
• The Dolphins have covered the spread in each of their last six Week 10 games.
• The Colts have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four November games at Lucas Oil Stadium.
• The Colts have lost the first half in each of their last four November games at Lucas Oil Stadium.
• The Dolphins have won the first quarter in each of their last two Week 10 games as underdogs.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Dolphins’ last six games without Greg Dulcich have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the last four games between the Dolphins and Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Facts

• Daniel Jones has recorded 20+ completions in eight of his 10 previous appearances in day games at Lucas Oil Stadium.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 20+ rushing yards in each of his five previous appearances in Week 10 day games.
• Daniel Jones has recorded 201+ passing yards in eight of his last nine home appearances against AFC opponents.
• Anthony Richardson has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last two appearances against AFC East opponents.
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has recorded 50+ receiving yards in four of his last five November home appearances against AFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 10, Spencer Shrader ranks 1st in the NFL in 50+ yard field goals made (8) this season.

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

• Ollie Gordon II has scored a touchdown in four of the Dolphins’ last five games as underdogs following a loss.
• Ollie Gordon II has recorded 88+ rushing yards in three of the Dolphins’ last four games as underdogs following a loss.
• Greg Dulcich has recorded 37+ receiving yards in each of the Dolphins’ last four games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• Malik Washington has recorded 40+ rushing and receiving yards in four of the Dolphins’ last five games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 10, Chop Robinson ranks T4th in the AFC for quarterback hurries (8) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 10, the Colts have suffered the largest margin of defeat in the NFL this season (35-point loss vs. Jacksonville on November 1, 2026).
• Heading into Week 10, the Colts have lost three games from a halftime lead this season- the most in the league.
• Heading into Week 10, the Dolphins rank 32nd in the NFL in 4th down percentage against (90.9%) this season.
• Heading into Week 10, the Dolphins rank 32nd in the NFL in Q3 opponent points per game (9.0) this season.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Dolphins +3.5