Commanders vs Giants Prediction 11/12/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

Commanders vs Giants Prediction

New York comes into this matchup after going 3-1-1 in their last five games and they are currently leading the NFC East standings. The Giants don’t have a great quarterback situation, but they are finding ways to win right now. Washington is 1-3-1 in their last five games, including a 27-27 tie with the Giants a few weeks ago. The Commanders have been super inconsistent on offense this year, but they do have the better quarterback in this matchup. Washington has gone over 40.5 in just two of their last five games and New York has gone over 40.5 in four of their last five, plus we saw 54 points in the first meeting between these teams, so I like the over here.

Washington Commanders Betting Preview

The Washington Commanders are 2-5-1 this season after they lost to the Rams by a score of 20-13 last week. Washington led 10-6 at halftime, but they were out scored 14-3 in the second half in the loss. The Commanders were out gained by a total of 343-313, went 3-12 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at two in the game. Jayden Daniels threw for 274 yards and one touchdown, while Van Jefferson caught five passes for 58 yards and one score. Rachaad White rushed seven times for 28 yards in the game.

Prior to that loss, Washington defeated the Eagles by a score of 27-10, but lost to the 49ers by a score of 23-17 before that. The Commanders have scored 21.5 points per game with 207.1 passing yards and 118.3 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 25.3 points against per game this season. Jayden Daniels has thrown for 1,250 yards with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions, while also rushing 31 times for 252 yards and two scores. Stefon Diggs has caught 30 passes for 303 yards and five touchdowns this season.

New York Giants Betting Preview

The New York Giants are 5-2-1 this year after they defeated the Eagles by a score of 19-11 in their last game. New York trailed 8-6 at halftime, but they scored 13 points in the second half for the comeback win. The Giants out gained Philadelphia by a total of 243-220, went 6-17 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at one in the game. JJ McCarthy threw for 127 yards, while Darnell Mooney caught three passes for 54 yards. Devin Singletary rushed 21 times for just 31 yards in the win.

Prior to that game, New York defeated the Texans by a score of 27-21, but lost to the Saints by a score of 34-27 before that. The Giants have scored 22.8 points per game with 221.0 passing yards and 112.1 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 21.5 points against per game this season. JJ McCarthy has thrown for 622 yards with one touchdown and one interception, while Malik Nabers has 53 catches for 648 yards and two scores. Cam Skattebo has led the rushing attack with 98 carries for 418 yards and two touchdowns this year.

Why the New York Giants will win

• The Commanders have lost eight of their last nine games in November.
• The Giants have won four of their last five home games without Jalin Hyatt.
• The Giants have covered the spread in each of their last four games against NFC East opponents.
• The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven November games as underdogs.
• The Commanders have lost the first half in eight of their last 10 road games against NFC opponents.
• The home team has won the first quarter in six of the Giants’ last eight games.

Why the Washington Commanders will win

• The Giants have lost each of their last seven Thursday games against teams that held a losing record.
• Ben Sinnott’s team has won each of its last four games with him playing against Brian Burns.
• The road team has covered the spread in each of the Giants’ last four games.
• The Giants have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games as favorites following a Division game.
• The Commanders have won the first half in five of their last six night games following a home loss.
• The Commanders have won the first quarter in each of their last four games against the Giants.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of the Commanders’ last nine games against NFC East opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Six of the Giants’ last seven games without Kayvon Thibodeaux have gone OVER the total points line.
• Four of the last five Thursday night games at MetLife Stadium have gone UNDER the total points line.

New York Giants Player Prop Facts

• Isaiah Likely has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Giants’ last three games against NFC East opponents.
• Devin Singletary has recorded 39+ rushing and receiving yards in 16 of his 17 previous November appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Devin Singletary has recorded 24+ rushing yards in each of his last nine November appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Isaiah Likely has recorded 53+ receiving yards in five of the Giants’ last six games against NFC opponents.
• Jameis Winston has recorded 22+ completions in three of his four previous Week 10 home appearances.
• Heading into Week 10, Arvell Reese has recorded the equal-most sacks in a single game this season (3.0 vs Eagles, Week 9).

Washington Commanders Player Prop Facts

• Stefon Diggs has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four regular season road appearances.
• Stefon Diggs has recorded 44+ receiving yards in each of his last 10 road appearances against NFC East opponents.
• Marcus Mariota has recorded 34+ rushing yards in four of his last five regular season road appearances against NFC East opponents.
• Stefon Diggs has recorded 44+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 10 road appearances against NFC East opponents.
• Marcus Mariota has recorded 231+ passing yards in three of his four previous Thursday night road appearances.
• Marcus Mariota has recorded 19+ completions in each of his four previous Thursday night road appearances.
• Heading into Week 10, Rachaad White ranks T1st in the league for fumbles recovered (2) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 10, the Giants have played in the equal-highest number of games that went to overtime this season (2).
• Heading into Week 10, three different Giants players have recorded a touchdown pass this season – equal-most in the league.
• Heading into Week 10, the Commanders rank T2nd in the NFL in fumbles recovered (7) this season.
• Heading into Week 10, the Commanders rank 30th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (240.0) this season.

Positive Trends

After looking at the trends, I am sticking with the over in this matchup. Washington has played in higher scoring games against NFC East opponents recently, with all three of the matchups so far this year going over 40.5 points. The Commanders are also one of the worst passing defenses, which means McCarthy should be able to move the ball. Take the over here.

David Racey's Pick: Over 40.5