Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction 11/16/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

In this article we will formulate a Chiefs vs Broncos prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, November 16th at Mile High Stadium in Denver, Colorado. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 11 matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs are 5-4 this year after they lost to Buffalo by a score of 28-21 in their last game. Kansas City trailed 21-13 at halftime and only managed eight points in the second half in the loss. The Chiefs were out gained by a total of 404-305, went 3-13 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Patrick Mahomes went 15-34 for 250 yards and one interception, while Kareem Hunt rushed 11 times for 49 yards and one score. Rashee Rice led the receivers with four catches for 80 yards in the loss. The KC defense recorded three sacks and three tackles for loss in the game. 

Prior to that game, Kansas City defeated the Commanders by a score of 28-7 and the Raiders by a score of 31-0. The Chiefs have won three of their last four games and they are currently third in the AFC West standings. Kansas City has scored 26.1 points per game with 248.9 passing yards and 121.2 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 17.7 points against per game this season. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 2,349 yards, 17 touchdowns, and five interceptions, while Travis Kelce has 41 receptions for 540 yards and three touchdowns this year. 

Denver Broncos Betting Preview

The Denver Broncos are 8-2 this season after they defeated Las Vegas by a score of 10-7 in their last game. Denver trailed 7-0 after the first quarter, but they tied the game in the second quarter and scored the only points in the second half for the low scoring win. The Broncos out gained Las Vegas by a total of 220-188, went 5-15 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a margin of 2-1 in the game. Bo Nix went 16-28 for 150 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, while JK Dobbins rushed 18 times for 77 yards. Pat Bryant led the receivers with one catch for 43 yards in the win. The Denver defense recorded six sacks and five tackles for loss in the game. 

Prior to that game, Denver defeated the Texans by a score of 18-15 and the Cowboys by a score of 44-24. The Broncos have won seven games in a row and they are currently first in the AFC West standings. Denver has scored 23.5 points per game with 206.0 passing yards and 128.6 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 17.3 points against per game this season. Bo Nix has thrown for 2,126 yards, 18 touchdowns, and eight interceptions, while JK Dobbins has rushed 153 times for 772 yards and four scores this season. 

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win

• The favorites have won each of the Broncos’ last 14 games at Empower Field at Mile High.
• The Broncos have lost seven of their last eight games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The Chiefs have covered the spread in four of their last five games at Empower Field at Mile High against teams that held a winning record.
• The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• The Broncos have lost the first quarter in six of their last eight games at Empower Field at Mile High following a win.
• The Chiefs have won the first half in five of their last six games against the Broncos following a loss.

Total Points Facts

• Ten of the Broncos’ last 11 November games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Chiefs’ last four games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of the last six games between AFC West teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Denver Broncos Player Prop Facts

• Courtland Sutton has scored a touchdown in four of the Broncos’ last five home games against AFC opponents.
• Bo Nix has recorded 25+ completions in three of the Broncos’ last four home games against AFC opponents.
• Bo Nix has recorded 247+ passing yards in three of the Broncos’ last four games at Empower Field at Mile High.
• Courtland Sutton has recorded 50+ receiving yards in nine of the Broncos’ last 10 regular season games as underdogs.
• Bo Nix has recorded 22+ rushing yards in each of the Broncos’ last six games as underdogs following a win.
• Heading into Week 11, Courtland Sutton ranks T2nd in the NFL in 20+ yard receiving touchdowns (4) this season.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Rashee Rice has scored at least one touchdown in five of his last six appearances.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 266+ passing yards in each of the Chiefs’ last six November games as favorites against AFC West opponents.
• Travis Kelce has recorded 64+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last 13 November games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 24+ completions in each of his last six appearances against AFC West opponents.
• Kareem Hunt has recorded 49+ rushing yards in each of his four previous November appearances with the Chiefs as road favorites.
• Marquise Brown has recorded 25+ rushing and receiving yards in 23 of his last 25 regular season appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Heading into Week 11, Patrick Mahomes ranks 2nd in the league for pass attempts inside the 20 (57) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 11, the Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in total punt yards (2530) this season.
• Heading into Week 11, the Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in red zone percentage against (37.5%) this season.
• Heading into Week 11, the Chiefs have recorded the most home wins by a margin of 10+ points this season (4).
• Heading into Week 11, the Chiefs have recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of 15+ points this season (3).

Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction 

Denver comes into this game as one of the hottest teams in the NFL when looking at wins and losses, but they have not played well in four of their last five games and could have easily lost any of those games. The Broncos have scored 18 points or fewer in three of their last five games, but they have also allowed 15 or fewer in three of their last five. Kansas City lost to Buffalo before their bye week, but they have scored 28 points or more in four of their last five. The Chiefs have been very good on both sides of the ball and I don’t think Denver can keep pace with how they are currently playing. Take the Chiefs here.

David Racey is 63-35 (64%) in the NFL this season and he is currently #1 on the NFL Leaderboard. David went 6-3 in the NFL last week and continues to be red hot. Click here for his premium plays for this week!

David Racey's Pick: Chiefs -3.5