Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction 11/16/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

The Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons meet in week 11 NFL action from Mercedes Benz Stadium on Sunday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons prediction.

Carolina Panthers Recap

The Carolina Panthers come into this game looking to bounce back from a 17-7 loss at the hands of the New Orleans Saints last time out to sit at 5-5 this season. After this game, Carolina will head on the road for a game against the San Francisco 49ers.

Panthers Alternate Wins & Losses In 4 Straight

Bryce Young has thrown for 1,514 yards, 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on 61.7% passing while Andy Dalton has 293 passing yards, a touchdown and an interception on 67.6% passing. Rico Dowdle has a team-high 788 rushing yards and 5 TDs and Chuba Hubbard has 313 rushing yards as well this season. Tetairoa McMillan has a team-high 46 catches for 618 yards and six more Panthers have 100+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Christian Rozeboom has a team-high 81 total tackles. As a unit, Carolina’s defense has combined for 16 sacks and 7 interceptions so far this season.

Atlanta Falcons Recap

The Atlanta Falcons come into this game looking to rebound from their 31-25 loss at the hands of the Indianapolis Colts last time out to sit at 3-6 this season. After this game, Atlanta will head on the road for a game against the New Orleans Saints.

Falcons Drop 4 In A Row

Michael Penix Jr. has thrown for 1,807 yards, 9 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 58.8% passing while Bijan Robinson leads the Falcons in rushing with 679 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns and 467 receiving yards out of the backfield. Tyler Allgeier has 270 rushing yards and 6 TDs. Drake London has a team-high 53 catches for 691 yards and 6 touchdowns while Kyle Pitts Sr. has 45 catches for 420 yards and a touchdown. On defense, Kaden EIliss has a team-high 60 total tackles while Xavier Watts has a pair of interceptions and Zach Harrison has a team-high 4.5 sacks. As a unit, Atlanta’s defense has combined for 29 sacks and 8 interceptions so far this season.

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends: Week 11

Why the Atlanta Falcons will win

• The Panthers have lost each of their last six Week 11 road games.
• The Falcons have won each of their three previous Week 11 games against the Panthers.
• The favorites have covered the spread in each of the Falcons’ last four Week 11 games.
• The Panthers have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six Week 11 games against NFC opponents.
• The Falcons have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six home games against the Panthers.
• The Falcons have won the first quarter in three of their last four home games.
• The Panthers have lost the first half in nine of their last 10 road games against NFC opponents.

Why the Carolina Panthers will win

• The underdogs have won five of the Panthers’ last six games.
• The Falcons have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Panthers have covered the spread in each of their last nine games as underdogs following a loss.
• The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight home games after coming off overtime.
• The road team has won the first half in each of the Panthers’ last six games.
• The Panthers have scored the first touchdown in three of their last four road games played on the East Coast.
• The Falcons have lost the first quarter in each of their last two games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).

Total Points Facts

• Each of the last four games between NFC South teams have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Panthers’ last four road games in November have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of the Falcons’ last six November games against NFC South opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

• Michael Penix Jr. has recorded 20+ completions in each of his last four home appearances.
• Michael Penix Jr. has recorded 250+ passing yards in each of his last four home appearances.
• Bijan Robinson has recorded 75+ rushing yards in each of the Falcons’ last five games as home favorites against NFC opponents.
• Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Falcons’ last four home games against NFC opponents.
• Darnell Mooney has recorded 43+ receiving yards in each of his last 11 home appearances against division opponents.
• Darnell Mooney has recorded 43+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 11 home appearances against division opponents.
• Xavier Watts has two interceptions through his first five career games – most by any player since Tariq Woolen, (2022).

Carolina Panthers Player Prop Facts

• Chuba Hubbard has scored a touchdown in four of his last five road appearances against NFC opponents.
• Bryce Young has recorded 18+ completions in each of the Panthers’ last three road games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
• Bryce Young has recorded 171+ passing yards in four of the Panthers’ last five games as underdogs against NFC South opponents.
• Chuba Hubbard has recorded 28+ rushing yards in each of his last 23 appearances with the Panthers as underdogs on the East Coast.
• Xavier Legette has recorded 23+ receiving yards in each of his six previous appearances with the Panthers as underdogs against NFC South opponents.
• Chuba Hubbard has recorded 52+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last nine road appearances on the East Coast.
• Heading into Week 11, Bryce Young has recorded the equal-most pass attempts in a single game this season (55 vs Cardinals, Week 2).

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 11, the Falcons rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (162.3) this season.
• Heading into Week 11, the Falcons rank 32nd in the NFL in average kickoff return (21.6 yards) this season.
• Heading into Week 11, the Panthers rank 1st in the NFL in 4th down attempts (22) this season.
• Heading into Week 11, the Panthers have recorded the equal-most home wins by a margin of five points or less this season (2).

Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction

I’m on the Falcons here. I still have my doubts about the Panthers and what this team really is on the road, and we’re getting to must-win territory for Atlanta if we’re not already there. The Panthers have been exceeding expectations overall this season, but I think they hit a speed bump here and I think the Falcons grab a much needed win. Give me Atlanta in this one.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Atlanta -3.5