Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction 4/20/25 NBA Picks

Cleveland Cavaliers Betting Preview 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have seen eight of their 18 losses come since March 16. The Cavs will play for the first time in a week and are in the playoffs for a third straight season. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are averaging 123.5 points on 49.1 percent shooting and allowing 113.8 points on 45.4 percent shooting. Donovan Mitchell is averaging 24 points and 5 assists, while Darius Garland is averaging 20.6 points and 6.7 assists. Evan Mobley is the third double-digit scorer and Jarrett Allen is grabbing 9.7 rebounds. The Cleveland Cavaliers are shooting 38.3 percent from beyond the arc and 77.6 percent from the free throw line. The Cleveland Cavaliers are allowing 35.9 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 46 rebounds per game.

Why the Cleveland Cavaliers will win

• The Cavaliers have won each of their last 10 playoff home games against Southeast Division opponents.
• The Heat have lost each of their last seven night games following an overtime win.
• The Cavaliers have covered the spread in each of their last six games at Rocket Arena following a home loss.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games following an overtime win.

Why the Miami Heat will win

• The Heat have won four of their last five Eastern Conference First Round games as underdogs against Central Division opponents.
• The Cavaliers have lost four of their last five playoff games.
• The Heat have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Cavaliers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six Sunday home games.

Miami Heat Player Facts

• Alec Burks ranks 14th amongst qualified players for 3P% (42.5%) this season.
• Kel'el Ware ranks 17th amongst qualified players for rebounds per 36 minutes (12.0) this season.

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers Injury Report

Max Strus, Evan Mobley, and Ty Jerome are questionable for the Cavaliers.

The Miami Heat will be without Dru Smith, Kevin Love, and Isaiah Stevens. 

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction

On paper, the Cavs should have their way with the Heat. The Cavs were also 48-33-1 ATS on the season which made them the second most profitable team in the NBA in the regular season. However, the Cavs have seen eight of their 18 losses come since March 16. The Heat have covered seven of the last 10 games against the Cavaliers. The Heat are also 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a double-digit underdog. Five of those 10 covers were outright wins.

Since 2020, the Heat are 5-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog in the playoffs and three of those covers were outright wins. The Cavs haven’t been a double-digit favorite in the playoffs since 2017, and they haven’t covered a playoff game as this large of a favorite since 2016. I want the points with the Heat.