Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction 9/12/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Yankees vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 12th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are 81-65 this season after they lost two out of three against Detroit by scores of 2-12, 1-11, and 9-3. In their game three win, New York was tied at one in the second inning, but they scored the next eight runs to pull away for the easy victory. The Yankees recorded 14 hits in the game and they were led by Judge and Chisholm Jr, who both had two RBIs in the win. New York started Schlittler, who allowed five hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings for the win, while Yarbrough picked up the three inning save. 

Prior to that series, the Yankees won two out of three against the Blue Jays and two out of three against the Astros. New York has won three of their last five games and they are second in the AL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 4.01 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a .232 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 761 runs with a .249 batting average and a .330 on base percentage this season. Aaron Judge has led New York with 46 home runs and 100 RBIs, while Cody Bellinger has added 28 home runs and 90 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Luis Gil, who is 3-1 with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP over 35.1 innings pitched this season. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 81-66 this year after they won two out of three against the Athletics by scores of 7-0, 6-0, and 4-5. In their game three loss, Boston tied the game at four in the top of the ninth, but watched the A’s walk it off in the bottom half of the inning. The Red Sox recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Refsnyder, Eaton, Story, and Duran, who all had one RBI in the loss. Boston started Tolle, who allowed three hits and two earned runs over 2.0 innings, while Chapman picked up the loss in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Red Sox lost two out of three against the Diamondbacks, but did win two out of three against the Guardians before that. Boston has won three of their last four games and they are currently third in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.74 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 726 runs with a .254 batting average and a .324 on base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu (IL) has led Boston with 22 home runs and 69 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added 24 home runs and 91 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Lucas Giolito, who is 10-3 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP over 130.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Yankees

The Red Sox have won nine of their last 10 games as home underdogs.
The Yankees have lost each of their last four games as road favorites against AL East opponents following a home win.
The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against the Yankees following a road loss.
The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites against AL East opponents following a win.
The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games as home underdogs against AL East opponents.
The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games as home underdogs.

Why the Yankees will beat the Red Sox 

The Yankees have won eight of their last 10 road games against American League opponents.
The Yankees have covered the run line in eight of their last 10 games as road favorites.
The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against AL East opponents.
The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Red Sox’s last four games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Four of the Yankees’ last five games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Yankees’ last 12 night games at Fenway Park.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Red Sox’s last 10 games as home underdogs against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

Lucas Giolito has recorded a win in six of his last seven appearances against AL opponents.
Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last eight home games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
Lucas Giolito has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his six previous Friday night appearances against AL East teams that held a winning record.
Triston Casas has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
Jarren Duran has recorded a Double in each of the Red Sox’s last three games.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

Giancarlo Stanton has hit at least one home run in three of his last four appearances with the Yankees as road favorites against AL East opponents.
Trent Grisham has recorded at least one Double in three of his four previous appearances at Fenway Park.
Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Yankees as road favorites against AL East opponents.

Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction 

These two teams come into this series with just a half game separating them in the standings, so this should be a very entertaining series to watch. The Red Sox are 44-28 at home this year, while the Yankees are 37-34 on the road. New York got beat up a little by Detroit in their last series and they are starting Gil, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. Boston is going with Giolito, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five. I know it’s not a popular pick in this series, but I like the under here.