Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals Prediction 9/19/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Toronto Blue Jays and the Kansas City Royals meet Friday in MLB action from Kauffman Stadium. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Toronto Blue Jays will send out Max Scherzer here and Scherzer is 5-3 with a 4.31 ERA and 75 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Royals, Scherzer is 5-0 with a 0.57 ERA and 32 strikeouts. The Kansas City Royals will trot out Michael Lorenzen here and Lorenzen is 5-11 with a 4.91 ERA and 114 strikeouts this season. In his career, Lorenzen is 0-1 with an 8.59 ERA and 3 strikeouts against the Blue Jays.

Toronto Blue Jays Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays come into this game looking to rebound from a 4-0 loss at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays last time out to sit at 89-64 this season. After this series, the Blue Jays will head home for a series against the Boston Red Sox.

Blue Jays Drop Back-To-Back Games

George Springer has 140 hits and Bo Bichette has 181 hits with Springer adding 29 home runs, a triple, 23 doubles and 78 RBIs while Bichette has 44 doubles, 18 home runs and 94 RBIs. Andres Gimenez has added 64 hits with 9 doubles and 7 home runs and 30 RBIs this season along with 12 stolen bases. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also has 23 homers, 33 doubles and 81 RBIs while Springer also has a .302 batting average and 104 strikeouts up to this point in the year. Addison Barger’s chipped in 30 doubles with 20 home runs and 72 RBIs and Ernie Clement’s added 33 doubles as part of his 144 hits this season.

Kansas City Royals Recap

The Kansas City Royals come into this game looking to rebound from their 2-0 loss at the hands of the Seattle Mariners last time out to fall to 76-77 this season. After this series, the Royals will head on the road for a series against the Los Angeles Angels.

Royals Drop 7 Of Their Last 10 Games

Bobby Witt Jr. has 166 hits with 41 doubles and 36 stolen bases along with 6 triples, 22 home runs and 79 RBIs while Vinnie Pasquantino has 151 hits with 27 doubles, a triple, 30 home runs and 104 RBIs. Maikel Garcia’s added 161 hits with 36 doubles, 5 triples, 16 home runs and 70 RBIs and 23 stolen bases and Salvador Perez also has 34 doubles, 28 home runs and 89 RBIs but also has 115 strikeouts so far this season.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals Betting Trends: September 19, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Michael Lorenzen      Record this season: 5-11      ERA: 4.91
• Home Record: 2-5
• Last 5 against Blue Jays: 0-1

Why the Kansas City Royals will win

• The Blue Jays have lost six of their last seven games as road favorites against American League opponents.
• The Royals have won four of their last five games as underdogs against the Blue Jays.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine games as road favorites against American League opponents.
• The Royals have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games against the Blue Jays.
• The Royals have won the first inning in four of their last five night games.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games as road favorites.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six Friday games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Royals have lost each of their last eight home games against AL East opponents.
• The Blue Jays have won each of their last six games against AL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Royals have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine home games against AL East opponents.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last four road games against AL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Blue Jays have won the first inning in three of their last four night games against AL Central opponents.
• The Royals have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five games against AL East opponents.
• The Blue Jays have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven games as road favorites against AL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last four games between the Blue Jays and Royals at Kauffman Stadium have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Blue Jays’ last four games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Royals’ last nine night games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Blue Jays’ last nine games as road favorites against AL Central opponents.

Kansas City Royals Player Prop Facts

• Salvador Perez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Royals’ last 11 games against the Blue Jays.
• Michael Massey has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Blue Jays.
• Kyle Isbel has recorded at least one Double in three of the Royals’ last four games against the Blue Jays.
• Michael Lorenzen has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against AL opponents.
• Bobby Witt Jr. ranks T3rd in the league in Hits (169) this season.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit a home run in each of the Blue Jays’ last two games at Kauffman Stadium against opponents that held a losing record.
• Ernie Clement has recorded a Double in each of the Blue Jays’ last four games as favorites.
• Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 17 appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• George Springer ranks 4th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.391) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Royals rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (1034).
• The Royals rank 29th in the league for walks this season (404).
• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1398).
• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.268).

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals Prediction

I’m on the Blue Jays here. Scherzer’s owned the Royals for the better part of his career, and the Royals just look like a team that’s running out of steam down the stretch. I think the Jays’ offense comes out strong against Michael Lorenzen as they have in the past and I think Toronto gets a big bounce back win here. Give me Toronto in this one.