Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 9/27/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Rays vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, September 27th in the final game of the regular season. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have an 87-74 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL East. They have a 42-38 home record and are coming off a 1-12 home loss against the Rays.

The Philadelphia Phillies have a .239 batting average this season, .311 OBP and .393 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.05 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Bryce Harper is the team’s best hitter with a .269 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 95, adding a team-high 45 home runs.

Zack Wheeler (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 13-5 record, 3.06 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 98-63 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the AL East. They have a 43-37 away record and are coming off a 12-1 road win against the Phillies.

The Tampa Bay Rays have a .258 batting average this season, .327 OBP and .401 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 3.68 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Chandler Simpson is the team’s best hitter with a .306 batting average. Junior Caminero leads the team in RBI with 101, adding a team-high 42 home runs.

Nick Martinez (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 15-5 record, 2.94 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: September 27, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Zack Wheeler      Record this season: 13-5      ERA: 3.06
• Home Record: 5-2
• Last 5 against Rays: 2-2

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last six day games following a home loss.
• The Rays have lost each of their last four day games against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line each of their last five day games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in three of their last four day games against AL opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Martinez      Record this season: 15-5      ERA: 2.94
• Road Record: 7-2
• Last 5 against Phillies: 0-1

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Phillies have lost each of their last four games as home favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Rays have won four of their last five games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 home games against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Rays have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 road games against NL opponents.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Phillies have lost the first inning in three of their last four games.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven games as underdogs against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Rays’ last five day games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Phillies’ last six home games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Rays’ last four games at Citizens Bank Park.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Phillies’ last four day games against AL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Marsh has hit a home run in two of the Phillies’ last three day games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last 13 appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against the Rays after playing the previous day.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks T1st in the league in Home Runs (45) this season.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Junior Caminero has hit a home run in six of the Rays’ last 10 games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Nick Martinez has recorded four or more strikeouts in five of his last six road appearances.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one hit in 25 of his last 26 appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Yandy Diaz ranks 4th in the league in Hits (180) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1569).
• The Phillies are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
• The Rays rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.258).
• The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (1137).

Rays vs Phillies Prediction

The Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings against the Rays but have lost their last two meetings in Philadelphia, both in this series.

In this Rays vs Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -150 home favorites. The Phillies will secure the NL wild card spot with a win today, but they have been playing terribly as of late and I don’t trust them to win, not even with Wheeler on the mound. During their last 10 games, their bullpen has a 5.70 ERA and are scoring just 2.6 runs per game against righties. They will face one of the best road pitchers in baseball in Nick Martinez, who has a 7-2 record and 2.05 ERA on the road, so I will take the Rays to win for plus money in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Tampa Bay Rays ML