Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Prediction 4/5/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Minnesota Twins meet Sunday in MLB action from Target Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Tampa Bay Rays will send out Nick Martinez for the start and Martinez is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 3 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Twins, Martinez is 1-2 with a 7.71 ERA and 24 strikeouts. The Minnesota Twins will start Simeon Woods Richardson here and Woods Richardson is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 2 strikeouts this season. In his career, Woods Richardson is 0-0 with a 4.66 ERA and 8 strikeouts against the Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays come into this game looking to add on to their 7-1 win over Minnesota from Saturday’s matchup to sit at 3-5 this season. After this series will head home for a series against the Cubs.

Rays Snap Three-Game Slide

Going into Saturday, Yandy Diaz leads the Rays with 13 hits with 2 home runs and 8 RBIs while Chandler Simpson has 10 hits with a triple. Nick Fortes has 8 hits with 2 doubles, a home run and 6 RBIs and Jonathan Aranda has 7 hits with a double, 2 homers and 5 RBIs.  

Minnesota Twins Recap

The Minnesota Twins come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss at the hands of Tampa Bay on Saturday to sit at 3-5 on the year. After this series, the Twins will head home for a division set against the Detroit Tigers.

Twins Have Two-Game Win Streak Halted

Entering Saturday, Luke Keaschall has 7 hits with 3 RBIs while Josh Bell has 6 hits with 3 doubles and 2 home runs with 7 RBIs. Royce Lewis has 4 hits wtih 2 doubles, 2 home runs and 5 RBIs and Matt Wallner has 4 hits with 2 solo home runs. Victor Caratini also has 5 hits this season.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins Betting Trends: April 5, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Simeon Woods-Richardson      Record this season: 0-1      ERA: 3.60
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Rays: 0-0

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• The Rays have lost each of their last 10 games as road underdogs against American League opponents following a road win.
• The Twins have won seven of their last eight games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in 12 of their last 13 day games against American League opponents.
• The Twins have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games as road underdogs against American League opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Martinez      Record this season: 0-0      ERA: 3.00
• Road Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Twins: 1-2

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Twins have lost each of their last 10 games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The Rays have won four of their last five games as underdogs against American League opponents following a win.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games as favorites.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as road underdogs against the Twins.
• The Twins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six day games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Twins have lost the first inning in each of their last three day games at Target Field.
• The Twins have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight home games.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Twins’ last 11 day games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Rays’ last five day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Twins’ last nine games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Rays’ last six games as underdogs against American League opponents.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Trevor Larnach has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight home appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Byron Buxton has hit a home run in three of his last seven appearances against AL East opponents that held a losing record.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in two of the Rays’ last three games as underdogs.
• Gavin Lux has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven road appearances.
• Yandy Diaz ranks T2nd in the league in Hits (14) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Twins rank T3rd in the league for home runs allowed this season (5).
• The Twins rank T27th in the league for hits this season (52).
• The Rays rank 3rd in the league for hits this season (78).
• The Rays rank 28th in the league for ERA this season (5.27).

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction

I’m backing the Twins here. I’m still not sold on Nick Martinez, and the Rays right now still have one of the worst bullpen ERAs in all of baseball which is not like Tampa Bay if you know this team as they’re built year after year on quality pitching. Minnesota’s better than what they’ve shown out of the gate and Woods Richardson still looks like a quality option for this rotation. Give me Minnesota.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Minnesota -115