St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres Prediction 08/01/2025 Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Cardinals vs Padres prediction for this MLB game on Friday, August 1, at PETCO Park in San Diego, California. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals (55-55, 23-31 Away) are still looking for their first series win in the second half of the season. They were swept by the Diamondbacks, lost to the Rockies, split with the Padres, and lost to the Marlins. St. Louis opened that series against Miami with a win, but then failed to score in the next two games, losing 5-0 and 2-0, respectively. In the most recent defeat, Miles Mikolas took the loss after allowing two runs on five hits with five strikeouts and no walks in 6.0 innings.

This year, the Cardinals average 4.39 runs per game (14th in the MLB) on a .250/.320/.389 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Cardinals’ staff has a 4.17 ERA (19th) and 1.28 WHIP (17th). Willson Contreras leads the Cardinals with a .257 batting average, 14 home runs, and 61 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals is Matthew Liberatore, who is 6-8 in 19 starts this season, with a 4.04 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 104.2 innings.

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres (60-49, 34-18 Home) are on a five-game winning streak after defeating the Cardinals to split that series following b2b losses, and then they swept the New York Mets in three games at home. The Padres haven’t allowed a single run in Game 3 win on Wednesday, scoring five in return. Manny Machado and Gavin Sheets led the offense with two RBI apiece, while Yu Darvish got the first win of the campaign after allowing no runs on two hits with seven strikeouts and no walks across 7.0 innings of work.

This season, the Padres average 4.08 runs per game (24th in the MLB) on a .250/.318/.380 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Padres’ staff has a 3.55 ERA (3rd) and 1.21 WHIP (4th). Manny Machado leads the Padres with a .302 batting average, 20 home runs, and 71 RBI this season.

Nick Pivetta will take the mound for the Padres on Friday. The 32-year-old right-hander has a 10-3 record in 21 starts this year with a 2.81 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 121.2 innings.

Why the Padres will beat the Cardinals

• The Cardinals have lost seven of their last eight games at Petco Park against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have won each of their last five games against National League opponents.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last five home games against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven road games against National League opponents.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine night games against the Cardinals at Petco Park.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in seven of their last nine night games against the Cardinals at Petco Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Four of the Cardinals’ last five night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Padres’ last five games as favorites against the Cardinals have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cardinals’ last five night games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last four games as home favorites.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank T28th in the league for home runs this season (92).
• The Padres rank 3rd in the league for strikeouts against this season (767).
• The Cardinals rank 3rd in the league for doubles this season (195).
• The Cardinals rank 3rd in the league for walks allowed this season (288).

Cardinals vs Padres Prediction

The teams have traded victories in the past couple of years, each recording five in the previous ten H2H encounters. This season, the series is tied at 2-2. I am backing the Padres to win here because I favor Nick Pivetta over Matthew Liberatore. Pivetta hasn’t allowed more than two runs in each of his previous six starts, and he actually allowed two only once in that span – against the Cards. Liberatore, on the other hand, was solid in his latest start against San Diego, even though he took the loss, but he did allow ten runs in 12.1 innings in July. Go with the Padres to open this series with a W.