San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 8/4/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The San Diego Padres and the Arizona Diamondbacks meet Tuesday in MLB action from Chase Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The San Diego Padres will send out Randy Vasquez for the start here and Vasquez is 6-6 with a 4.45 ERA and 64 strikeouts this season. Eduardo Rodriguez will start for Arizona and is 10-3 with a 2.48 ERA and 88 strikeouts this season.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to bounce back from their 5-1 loss at the hands of Arizona on Monday to sit at 58-55 this season. After this series, the Padres will head home for a series against the Houston Astros.

Padres Have Three-Game Win Streak Snapped

Entering Monday, Jackson Merrill has 100 hits with 18 doubles, 16 home runs and 52 RBIs while Gavin Sheets has 68 hits with 15 doubles, 14 home runs and 43 RBIs as well on the year. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 122 hits with 22 doubles, 8 home runs and 49 RBIs and Xander Bogaerts has 81 hits with 10 doubles, 9 home runs and 40 RBIs. Manny Machado also has 85 hits with 19 doubles, 23 home runs and 65 RBIs as well on the year.

Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks come into this game looking to add on to their win over San Diego to sit at 60-53 this season. After this series, the Diamondbacks will take on the Dodgers in a series at home.

Diamondbacks Win 5 Of Last 6

Going into Monday, Corbin Carroll has 100 hits including 22 doubles, 12 triples, 16 home runs and 52 RBIs. Ketel Marte has 109 hits with 22 doubles, 3 triples, 19 home runs and 62 RBIs and Geraldo Perdomo has 92 hits, with 14 doubles, 4 triples, 9 home runs and 41 RBIs as well this season. Nolan Arenado also has 88 hits with 20 doubles, 15 home runs and 51 RBIs and Gabriel Moreno has 89 hits with 18 doubles, 8 home runs and 47 RBIs this season. Ildemaro Vargas also has 88 hits with 16 doubles, 3 triples, 7 home runs and 51 RBIs.

San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Trends: August 4, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Eduardo Rodriguez      Record this season: 10-3      ERA: 2.48
• Home Record: 5-2
• Last 5 against Padres: 1-2

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Padres have lost seven of their last eight night games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Diamondbacks have won each of their last five games against NL West opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line each of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six night games against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last eight night games.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in three of their last four games at Chase Field.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games at Chase Field.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Randy Vasquez      Record this season: 6-6      ERA: 4.45
• Road Record: 3-2
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 0-0

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last six games against the Diamondbacks following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have lost four of their last six games as favorites against the Padres following a win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last six games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites against the Padres following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games at Chase Field against NL West opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Padres’ last four road games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Diamondbacks’ last five games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Padres’ last five road games.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in five of the Diamondbacks’ last six home games.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Tim Tawa has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• Eduardo Rodriguez has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances in night games.
• Eduardo Rodriguez has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• James McCann has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances.
• Eduardo Rodriguez ranks 6th amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (2.48) this season.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Xander Bogaerts has hit a home run in two of the Padres’ last three games at Chase Field.
• Luis Rengifo has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances with his team as a road underdog against NL opponents.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks T8th in the league in Steals (26) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Diamondbacks rank T1st in the league for triples this season (25).
• The Diamondbacks rank 30th in the league for strikeouts this season (765).
• The Padres rank 3rd in the league for steals this season (114).
• The Padres rank T26th in the league for hits this season (872).

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

I’m on Arizona here. Rodriguez has been an ATM for much of the year for Arizona as the Diamondbacks just back him up and while the Padres have improved against lefties as the season has progressed, they’re up against it in this game. Randy Vasquez has been falling flat and not ging deep into games as of late and I think Arizona gets to him for the win here. Give me Arizona.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Arizona -135