San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 07/08/2025 Picks

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres meet Tuesday in MLB action from Petco Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Arizona Diamondbacks will send out Merrill Kelly for the start here and Kelly is 7-4 with a 3.55 ERA and 103 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Padres, Kelly is 1-3 with a 6.43 ERA and 30 strikeouts. Nick Pivetta will get the start for the Padres here and is 9-2 with a 3.25 ERA and 107 strikeouts this season. In his career, Pivetta is 2-1 with a 4.60 ERA and 18 strikeouts.

Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks come into this game looking to add on to their 6-3 win over the Padres from Monday’s series opener to sit at 45-46 on the year. After this series, the Diamondbacks will head on the road for an interleague series against the Los Angeles Angels.

Diamondbacks Alternate Wins & Losses In 4 Straight

Corbin Carroll has 73 hits with 20 home runs, 44 RBIs, 9 triples and 13 doubles while Josh Naylor has 92 hits with 18 doubles, 10 home runs and 56 RBIs as well this season. Eugenio Suarez has also added 28 home runs and 73 RBIs while Geraldo Perdomo has 59 RBIs. Naylor has also chipped in 10 stolen bases as well up to this point in the year while Suarez has the unfortunate distinction of leading the Diamondbacks with 98 strikeouts so far this season. Carroll also has 10 stolen bases and Perdomo has a team-high 13 stolen bases as well this season.

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

The underdogs have won each of the Diamondbacks’ last five games at Petco Park.
The Padres have lost each of their last three games as favorites against NL West opponents.
The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs against National League opponents following a road win.
The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against National League opponents.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

Eugenio Suarez has recorded a Double in four of the Diamondbacks’ last five games as road underdogs against NL opponents.
Eugenio Suarez has hit a home run in three of the Diamondbacks’ last four games as underdogs.
Merrill Kelly has recorded five or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 appearances with the Diamondbacks as road underdogs against NL opponents.
Josh Naylor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
Merrill Kelly has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances.
Eugenio Suarez ranks 4th in the league in Home Runs (28) this season.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss at the hands of the Diamondbacks on Monday to sit at 48-42 on the year. After this series, the Padres will take on the Philadelphia Phillies at home.

Padres Looking For Consistency As Well

Manny Machado has 98 hits including a team-high 21 doubles, 14 home runs, 52 RBIs and 8 stolen bases while Fernando Tatis Jr. has 87 hits with a team-high 15 home runs and 39 RBIs along with 19 stolen bases of his own this season. Luis Arraez has added 99 hits with 17 doubles, 4 triples, 4 home runs and 34 RBIs while Jackson Merrill’s added 61 hits with 5 home runs and 29 RBIs as well. Xander Bogaerts also has 18 doubles and 13 stolen bases as well this season. Gavin Sheets also has 14 doubles, 13 home runs and 49 RBIs as well this season.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

The Padres have won each of their last eight home games against National League opponents following a loss.
The Diamondbacks have lost five of their last six road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
The Padres have covered the run line in six of their last seven night games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four games against the Padres following a win.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit a home run in three of the Padres’ last five night games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
Nick Pivetta has recorded six or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
Jake Cronenworth has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances against the Diamondbacks after playing the previous day.
Nick Pivetta has recorded a win in each of his last four home appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
Nick Pivetta ranks T5th in the league for Wins (9) this season.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the last seven games between the Diamondbacks and Padres at Petco Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
Each of the Diamondbacks’ last six games as underdogs against the Padres have gone OVER the total runs line.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Prediction

I’m on Arizona in this one. I get the case to be made for San Diego here, but the thing is that the Diamondbacks for me have the better starter in Kelly, who has been outstanding on the road, and while Pivetta’s been solid for San Diego, I think that he’s pitching a bit above his pay grade, and I think that the Diamondbacks keep the offense up in Tuesday’s matchup. Give me Arizona here.