Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction 8/6/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for this MLB matchup on Thursday, August 6th in the fourth game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers have a 71-43 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the NL Central. They have a 38-21 home record and are coming off a 4-2 home win against the Pirates. They will face the Twins and the Padres next.

The Milwaukee Brewers have a .253 batting average this season, .336 OBP and .397 Slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.45 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Jackson Chourio is the team’s best hitter with a .276 batting average. Brice Turang leads the team in RBI with 69, while Jake Bauers adds a team-high 20 home runs.

Dustin May (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he has a 5-7 record, 4.38 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 57-59 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the NL Central. They have a 28-31 away record and are coming off a 2-4 road loss against the Brewers. They will face the Mets and the Marlins next.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a .256 batting average this season, .333 OBP and .413 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 4.30 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Nick Gonzales is the team’s best hitter with a .306 batting average. Brandon Lowe leads the team in RBI with 71 and adds a team-high 23 home runs.

Braxton Ashcraft (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he has a 11-4 record, 3.96 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends: August 6, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Dustin May      Record this season: 5-7      ERA: 4.38
• Home Record: 3-3
• Last 5 against Pirates: 0-2

Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win

• The Brewers have won each of their last six games against the Pirates following a home win.
• The Pirates have lost four of their last five games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last eight games against the Pirates following a win.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven day games against the Brewers following a loss.
• The Brewers have led after 5 innings in four of their last five home games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Braxton Ashcraft      Record this season: 11-4      ERA: 3.96
• Road Record: 6-3
• Last 5 against Brewers: 0-0

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won each of their last eight day games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Brewers have lost five of their last six day games against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last six day games following a road loss.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line each of their last six Thursday day games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Brewers have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six Thursday day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in five of their last six day games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Brewers’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Pirates’ last five games as underdogs against the Brewers have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Pirates’ last 13 day games at American Family Field.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the last seven games between the Pirates and Brewers at American Family Field.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Dustin May has recorded seven or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Brice Turang has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances in day games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Gary Sanchez has hit a home run in four of his last 10 appearances with his team as a favorite against the Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Endy Rodriguez has hit a home run in three of his last four road appearances against the Brewers.
• Braxton Ashcraft has recorded a win in five of his last six road appearances against NL opponents.
• Braxton Ashcraft has recorded seven or more strikeouts in three of his last four road appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Nick Gonzales ranks 5th in the league in Hits (128) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Brewers rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (104).
• The Brewers rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.218).
• The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1030).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1101).

Pirates vs Brewers Prediction

The Pirates are 4-2 in their last 6 meetings against the Brewers but are 1-3 in their last 4 visits in Milwaukee. 

In this Pirates vs Brewers Prediction, the Brewers are coming as -130 home favorites. I like the pitching in this matchup, as Dustin May has been very good lately and better at home, while Ashcraft bounced back after a rough stretch with a quality start. Both offenses have been toned down lately, as both teams average just 5.7 runs per game combined in their last 5 games and all three games in this series went under the total. Both bullpen are also in excellent form lately, so I like the under 7.5 runs in this one.  

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Under 7.5