Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction 8/4/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, August 4th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers have a 69-43 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the NL Central. They have a 36-21 home record and are coming off a 3-4 home loss against the Pirates. They will face the Twins and the Padres next.

The Milwaukee Brewers have a .253 batting average this season, .337 OBP and .397 Slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.48 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Jackson Chourio is the team’s best hitter with a .274 batting average. Brice Turang leads the team in RBI with 69, while Jake Bauers adds a team-high 20 home runs.

Logan Henderson (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he has a 5-1 record, 2.66 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 57-57 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL Central. They have a 28-29 away record and are coming off a 4-3 road win against the Brewers. They will face the Mets and the Marlins next.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a .258 batting average this season, .335 OBP and .414 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 4.29 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Nick Gonzales is the team’s best hitter with a .309 batting average. Brandon Lowe leads the team in RBI with 71 and adds a team-high 23 home runs.

Jared Jones (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he has a 2-2 record, 3.81 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends: August 4, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Logan Henderson      Record this season: 5-1      ERA: 2.66
• Home Record: 2-0
• Last 5 against Pirates: 0-0

Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win

• The Pirates have lost nine of their last 10 night games at American Family Field following a road win.
• The Brewers have won seven of their last eight night games following a loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games following a win.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in five of their last six games against the Pirates following a home loss.
• The Brewers have led after 5 innings in 13 of their last 14 Tuesday games as home favorites.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six Tuesday road games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jared Jones      Record this season: 2-2      ERA: 3.81
• Road Record: 2-1
• Last 5 against Brewers: 1-0

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won three of their last four games as underdogs against the Brewers.
• The Brewers have lost three of their last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in seven of their last eight road games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight road games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Brewers have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Brewers’ last four games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Pirates’ last five games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in eight of Jared Jones’ last nine appearances as a starter.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the Brewers’ last eight night games against National League opponents.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Jake Bauers has hit a home run in two of the Brewers’ last three night games.
• Logan Henderson has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances.
• Christian Yelich has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against the Pirates after playing the previous day.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Jared Jones has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his five previous road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jake Mangum has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Marcell Ozuna has hit a home run in seven of his last 14 appearances with his team as a road underdog against the Brewers.
• Nick Gonzales is one of only four players to hit over .300 and have 45+ RBIs this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Brewers rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (101).
• The Brewers rank 2nd in the league for walks this season (465).
• The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1022).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1076).

Pirates vs Brewers Prediction

The Pirates are 6-1 in their last 7 meetings against the Brewers and are 3-1 in their last 4 visits in Milwaukee. 

In this Pirates vs Brewers Prediction, the Brewers are coming as -155 home favorites. Both pitchers have been excellent this season with a combined 6.47 ERA and both have a sub-1.02 WHIP. They both have been in excellent form, with Henderson having two earned runs or less in 8 of his 9 starts this season and Jones having one earned run or less in four of his last five starts. Both teams are also 8-2 to the under in their last 10 games combined and the first game of this series had seven total runs. Take the under 7.5 in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Under 7.5