Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals Prediction 7/5/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Royals Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, July 5th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Kansas City Royals Preview

The Kansas City Royals have a 35‑54 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the AL Central. They have a 19‑26 home record and are coming off a 1‑6 home defeat against the Phillies. They will face the Mets and the Orioles next.

The Royals have a .241 batting average this season, .312 OBP and .387 Slugging percentage. Kansas City’s pitching staff has a 4.88 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Bobby Witt Jr. is the team’s best hitter with a .286 batting average. Carter Jensen leads the team in RBI with 47, while Jac Caglianone adds a team‑high 14 home runs.

Luinder Avila (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Royals, and he has a 3‑3 record, 5.40 ERA and 1.67 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 50‑39 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL East. They have a 25‑18 road record and are coming off a 6‑1 road win against the Royals. They will face the Reds and the Tigers next.

The Phillies have a .238 batting average this season, .304 OBP and .406 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.11 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .310 batting average. Bryce Harper leads the team in RBI with 57, while Kyle Schwarber adds a team‑high 30 home runs.

Aaron Nola (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 3‑5 record, 6.04 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals Betting Trends: July 5, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Luinder Avila      Record this season: 3-3      ERA: 5.40
• Home Record: 0-3
• Last 5 against Phillies: 0-0

Why the Kansas City Royals will win

• The Phillies have lost six of their last seven games as favorites against AL Central opponents following a road win.
• The Royals have won four of their last six games as underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven day games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Royals have covered the run line in each of their last four day games against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Royals have led after 3 innings in three of their last four day games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Royals have led after 5 innings in three of their last four day games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola      Record this season: 3-5      ERA: 6.04
• Road Record: 3-3
• Last 5 against Royals: 0-3

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Royals have lost eight of their last nine games.
• The road team has won each of the Royals’ last five games.
• The road team has covered the run line in each of the Royals’ last six games.
• The Royals have failed to cover the run line each of their last six home games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Royals have lost the first inning in four of their last five home games against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven games as road favorites against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the last 10 games between the Phillies and Royals have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Phillies’ last nine road games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Phillies’ last 10 games as road favorites against AL Central opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of Luinder Avila’s seven previous appearances as a starter.

Kansas City Royals Player Prop Facts

• Jac Caglianone has hit at least one home run in three of the Royals’ last four games against NL opponents.
• Luinder Avila has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Luinder Avila has recorded five or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Carter Jensen has recorded at least one hit in each of the Royals’ last 11 day games.
• Bobby Witt Jr. ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (29) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• J.T. Realmuto has hit at least one home run in three of his last four appearances against the Royals.
• Aaron Nola has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in 13 of his last 14 appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Bryson Stott has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 10 games against the Royals.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (30) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Royals rank 28th in the league for ERA this season (4.88).
• The Royals rank 28th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.263).
• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (864).
• The Phillies rank 28th in the league for doubles this season (120).

Phillies vs Royals Prediction

The Phillies are 7-2 in their last 9 meetings against the Royals and have won their last three visits in Kansas City.

In this Phillies vs Royals Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -140 road favorites. The Phillies are being overvalued in this spot, as Nola has been terrible this season and has a 6.91 ERA across his last three starts but Avila for the Royals have been atrocious at home with a 12.79 ERA across 12.7 innings pitched. The Phillies have a better bullpen and the Royals are dead last against righties in the last 10 days, so take the lesser of two evils in this one. Take the Phillies on the moneyline.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Philadelphia Phillies ML