Padres vs Red Sox Prediction 4/4/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Padres vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, April 4th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are 2-5 this season after they lost game one to the Red Sox by a score of 5-2 on Friday afternoon. San Diego erased a 2-0 deficit with runs in the fourth and fifth innings, but they allowed three in the sixth for the loss. The Padres recorded four hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Sheets and Campusano, who both had one RBI. King allowed seven hits and four earned runs over 5.2 innings for the loss, while Peralta allowed one earned run in relief. 

This season, San Diego has a 4.21 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while they have scored 21 runs with a .192 batting average and a .264 on base percentage. Ramon Laureano has led the Padres with two home runs and four RBIs, while Jackson Merrill has added one home run and four RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Randy Vasquez, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP over 6.0 innings pitched this season. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 2-5 this year after they won game one by a score of 5-2 to open the series on Friday afternoon. Boston blew a 2-0 lead in the middle innings, but they answered with three runs in the sixth to get a much needed win. The Red Sox recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Mayer, who went 2-2 with one home run and two RBIs. Gray allowed four hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Chapman picked up the save in the ninth. 

This season, Boston has a 4.48 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP and a .243 opponent batting average, while they have scored 22 runs with a .219 batting average and a .297 on base percentage. Wilyer Abreu has led the Red Sox with three home runs and six RBIs, while Roman Anthony has added one home run and two RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Connelly Early, who is 0-0 with a 1.69 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 5.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Padres have lost each of their last six road games against AL East opponents.
• The home team has won eight of the Red Sox’s last nine games.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line each of their last eight day games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in seven of their last eight home games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games at Fenway Park.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Red Sox have lost each of their last four games as favorites following a home win.
• The Padres have won each of their last seven Saturday games.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games after playing the previous day.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last seven Saturday games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Padres’ last five road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Red Sox’s last five games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Padres’ last eight road games against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Red Sox’s last six games against National League opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with his team as a home favorite against NL opponents.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances in day games against NL teams that held a losing record.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jackson Merrill has hit a home run in three of his last four Saturday appearances against teams that held a losing record.
• Manny Machado has recorded at least one hit in 12 of his last 13 road appearances against the Red Sox.

Padres vs Red Sox Prediction 

Boston was able to snap their losing streak with a win on Friday afternoon, but they have allowed at least six runs in three of their last four games. The Red Sox are going against Vasquez, who was dominant in his first start of the year. San Diego has lost three of their last four games and they have scored three runs or fewer in four of their last five. The Padres will be facing Early, who pitched well in his first outing, but I am not confident he can repeat that here. Take the Padres and the plus money in this one.

David Racey's Pick: Padres ML