Padres vs Mets Prediction 8/18/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Padres vs Mets prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, August 18th at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are 67-59 this year after they lost game one by a score of 2-1 last night. San Diego cut the deficit to 2-1 in the second inning, but couldn’t find the tying run for the loss. The Padres recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Tatis Jr, who went 0-3 with one RBI. Buehler allowed two hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings for the loss, while Hart threw two innings in relief. Prior to this series, San Diego won two out of three against the Guardians and all three against the Brewers. 

This season, San Diego has a 4.07 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and a .244 opponent batting average, while they have scored 536 runs with a .238 batting average and a .315 on base percentage. Manny Machado has led the Padres with 23 home runs and 70 RBIs, while Gavin Sheets has added 16 home runs and 45 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Robbie Ray, who is 10-7 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 131.2 innings pitched this year. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 57-69 this season after they won game one by a score of 2-1 on Monday night. New York scored two runs in the first inning and they got the win, despite not scoring over the last seven innings. The Mets recorded five hits in the game and they were led by Bichette, who went 1-3 with one RBI. McLean allowed six hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings for the win, while Duarte picked up the save. Prior to this series, New York swept the Nationals in three games, but lost two out of three against the Braves before that. 

This season, New York has a 4.07 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .238 opponent batting average, while they have scored 525 runs with a .236 batting average and a .307 on base percentage. Juan Soto (IL) has led the Mets with 21 home runs and 52 RBIs, while Bo Bichette has added 12 home runs and 63 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Zac Thornton, who is 3-3 with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 45.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Padres have lost each of their last three games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have won seven of their last eight home games against the Padres.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as home underdogs against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against the Padres at Citi Field.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games against the Padres.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last eight night games against the Mets at Citi Field following a road loss.
• The Mets have lost seven of their last nine home games against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last 11 night games against the Mets at Citi Field following a loss.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six home games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games at Citi Field against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Mets’ last 10 home games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Padres’ last four road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the Padres’ last eight games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of Zach Thornton’s four previous home appearances as a starter.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Luis Torrens has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Zach Thornton has recorded five or more strikeouts in three of his four previous appearances at Citi Field.
• Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six appearances against the Padres.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Robbie Ray has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last 13 appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a losing record.
• Luis Rengifo has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last eight road games against NL East opponents.
• Freddy Fermin has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Mets.
• Robbie Ray has recorded a win in each of his last 11 Tuesday night appearances against NL teams that held a losing record.

Padres vs Mets Prediction 

New York comes into this matchup on a four game winning streak and they have allowed three runs or fewer in three of those four games. The Mets are 29-34 at home this year, while the Padres are 30-33 on the road. San Diego has won three of their last five games, but they have allowed 5+ runs in two of their last four. The Padres are starting Ray, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, while Thornton has allowed three earned runs in three of his last four outings. Take the Padres to win here.

David Racey's Pick: Padres ML