Orioles vs Rays Prediction 8/17/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate an Orioles vs Rays prediction for this MLB game on Monday, August 17th at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 61-63 this year after they won the first three games in this series by scores of 6-5, 4-3, and 10-2. In game three, Baltimore scored 10 runs in the 5th and 6th innings to get the blowout win. The Orioles recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Holliday, who went 2-4 with three RBIs. Rogers allowed seven hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Suarez threw a scoreless inning in relief. Prior to this series, Baltimore lost two out of three against the Twins and two out of three against the Rangers. 

This season, Baltimore has a 4.21 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and a .253 opponent batting average, while they have scored 563 runs with a .237 batting average and a .321 on base percentage. Pete Alonso has led the Orioles with 27 home runs and 80 RBIs, while Gunnar Henderson has added 20 home runs and 51 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Brandon Young, who is 9-3 with a 3.33 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 113.2 innings pitched this year. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 74-49 this season after they lost game three by a score of 2-10 on Sunday. Tampa Bay led 1-0 in the fourth inning, but scored just one run in the last five innings in the loss. The Rays recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Vilade, who went 3-4 with one home run and one RBI. Peralta allowed one hit and two earned runs over 4.2 innings for the loss, while Matz allowed five earned runs in relief. Prior to this series, Tampa Bay swept the Athletics in three games and swept the Mariners in three games. 

This season, Tampa Bay has a 3.76 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and a .230 opponent batting average, while they have scored 559 runs with a .261 batting average and a .331 on base percentage. Jonathan Aranda has led the Rays with 15 home runs and 75 RBIs, while Junior Caminero has added 35 home runs and 79 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Shane McClanahan, who is 9-6 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 99.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won 14 of their last 16 night games after playing the previous day.
• The Orioles have lost seven of their last eight Monday night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have covered the run line in five of their last six night games following a home loss.
• The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight Monday night games as underdogs.

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Orioles have won each of their last six games as underdogs against the Rays.
• The Rays have lost nine of their last 10 games as favorites against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The road team has covered the run line in 18 of the Rays’ last 19 games.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games against the Orioles at Tropicana Field following a home loss.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four home games.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Rays’ last six games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Orioles’ last eight night games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the Rays’ last eight games as home favorites against AL East opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Orioles’ last four games at Tropicana Field.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Chandler Simpson has recorded two or more hits in nine of his last 10 appearances after playing the previous day.
• Shane McClanahan has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his five previous appearances at Tropicana Field against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Shane McClanahan has recorded a win in each of his five previous appearances at Tropicana Field against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Ryan Vilade has hit a home run in two of his last three home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Chandler Simpson ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.309) this season.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Young has recorded four or more strikeouts in 13 of his last 14 appearances.
• Pete Alonso has recorded at least one hit in each of the Orioles’ last eight games.
• Brandon Young has recorded a win in each of his last four road appearances.
• Colton Cowser has hit a home run in three of the Orioles’ last four road games against opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays are one of only two teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
• The Rays rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (317).
• The Orioles rank 26th in the league for hits this season (974).
• The Orioles rank 26th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.253).

Orioles vs Rays Prediction 

Baltimore comes into this matchup looking to complete the four game sweep and they have scored 25 runs in their last four games. The Orioles are 29-33 on the road this year, while the Rays are 41-21 at home. Tampa Bay is looking to snap this losing streak, but they still lead the AL East by 5.5 games. The Rays are starting McClanahan, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts, while Young has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last five outings. I am going to lay the questionable odds with the Rays ML here.

David Racey's Pick: Rays ML