New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction 07/30/2025 Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Padres prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, July 30, at PETCO Park in San Diego, California. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets (62-46, 25-30 Away) swept the Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants and were on a seven-game winning run that ended with a narrow loss to the Padres in Game 1 of the current series. The Mets also lost Game 2; this time it was not close as they succumbed to a 7-1 defeat. Starling Marte drove in the lone run for the offense, while Sean Manaea pitched for 5.0 innings in a no-decision, allowing one run on three hits with four strikeouts and no walks. Jose Butto took the loss.

This season, the Mets average 4.41 runs per game (14th in the MLB) on a .243/.322/.414 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Mets’ staff has a 3.54 ERA (2nd) and 1.30 WHIP (20th). Pete Alonso leads the Mets with a .261 batting average, 22 home runs, and 81 RBI this season.

Clay Holmes will take the mound for the Mets on Wednesday. The 32-year-old right-hander has a 9-5 record in 21 starts this year with a 3.40 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 113.2 innings.

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres (59-49, 33-18 Home) defeated the Washington Nationals, lost to the Miami Marlins, and split a series with the St. Louis Cardinals. San Diego is now on a four-game winning streak after beating the Mets in the opening two games of this series. In last night’s 7-1 victory, Manny Machado hit a three-run homer to lead the offense, while Ryan Bergert pitched for 4.0 innings in a no-decision, allowing one run on two hits with four strikeouts and four walks. Wandy Peralta was credited with the win.

This year, the Padres average 4.05 runs per game (25th in the MLB) on a .250/.317/.379 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Padres’ staff has a 3.60 ERA (5th) and 1.23 WHIP (5th). Manny Machado leads the Padres with a .301 batting average, 20 home runs, and 69 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Padres is Yu Darvish, who is 0-3 in four starts this season, with a 9.18 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 16.2 innings.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Padres’ last four games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Twelve of the Mets’ last 15 games as favorites against the Padres have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last four day games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Mets’ last seven day games against National League opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 2nd in the league for hits allowed this season (809).
• The Padres rank 3rd in the league for strikeouts against this season (759).
• The Mets rank T27th in the league for walks allowed this season (389).
• The Mets rank T5th in the league for walks this season (376).

Mets vs Padres Prediction

The teams have traded wins in the past couple of years, each recording five in the previous ten H2H meetings. The Padres were better in the past three H2Hs, but I am not going to bet on the winner here. Considering the pitching matchup, I am going with Over. Clay Holmes allowed multiple runs in four of his five starts in July, as he registered a 4.91 ERA. Yu Darvish, on the other hand, returned this month from a lengthy injury and has been struggling, allowing 17 runs in 16.2 innings so far. I am backing the Mets to score 3+ runs off of him early on. Go with Over.