New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 9/11/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Thursday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The New York Mets will start David Peterson here and Peterson is 9-5 with a 3.72 ERA and 140 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Phillies, Peterson is 0-2 with a 5.84 ERA and 23 strikeouts. Jesus Luzardo will get the start for the Phillies here and is 13-6 with a 4.01 ERA and 190 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Mets, Luzardo is 3-1 with a 2.12 ERA and 33 strikeouts.

New York Mets Recap

The New York Mets come into this game looking to rebound from an 11-3 loss at the hands of the Phillies last time out to sit at 76-70 this season. After this series, the Mets will head home for a series against the Texas Rangers.

Mets Lose 5 In A Row

Pete Alonso has 149 hits with 37 doubles, 33 home runs, 113 RBIs and a .269 batting average while Juan Soto has 132 hits with 17 doubles, 29 stolen bases, 38 home runs and 93 RBIs on the year. Francisco Lindor has 153 hits with 28 stolen bases along with 32 doubles, 26 home runs and 77 RBIs while Mark Vientos has 16 home runs and 56 RBIs, but also has 94 strikeouts so far this season. Brandon Nimmo has also added 135 hits with 27 doubles and 22 home runs and 80 RBIs this season. Luis Torrens has also chipped in 13 doubles and Luisangel Acuna has 14 stolen bases as well this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game looking to add on to their win over the Mets from Tuesday’s game to sit at 86-60 this season. After this series, the Phillies will square off in an interleague series against the Kansas City Royals at home.

Phillies Win 3 Straight & 6 Of Last 7

Nick Castellanos has 128 hits with 25 doubles including 16 home runs and 63 RBIs while Kyle Schwarber has 129 hits with a team-high 49 home runs and 120 RBIs but also has a team-high 169 strikeouts as well on the year. Bryce Harper has 11 stolen bases, 30 doubles, 24 home runs and 67 RBIs. Trea Turner also has 179 hits with 7 triples, 15 home runs, 69 RBIs and a team-high 36 stolen bases. Max Kepler has 18 doubles and Bryson Stott has 20 doubles, 3 triples, 10 homers and 60 RBIs while Stott also has 23 stolen bases as well this season.

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: September 11, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jesus Luzardo      Record this season: 13-6      ERA: 4.01
• Home Record: 6-2
• Last 5 against Mets: 3-1

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last nine road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The home team has won 14 of the last 15 games between the Mets and Phillies.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the last seven games between the Mets and Phillies.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven home games against opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: David Peterson      Record this season: 9-5      ERA: 3.72
• Road Record: 4-4
• Last 5 against Phillies: 1-2

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won 12 of their last 16 Thursday games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last six Thursday games against the Phillies.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 11 home games against NL East opponents following a home win.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 12 night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last seven night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Phillies’ last four games as favorites against the Mets have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last six games as favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last six Thursday night games at Citizens Bank Park.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last five home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine home appearances against NL East opponents.
• Brandon Marsh has recorded at least one Double in each of his last three appearances.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded a win in each of his last three home appearances against the Mets.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (50) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Juan Soto has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four games as road underdogs.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last nine games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Juan Soto ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.401) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (1333).
• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (399).
• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (133).
• The Mets rank 3rd in the league for walks this season (517).

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

I’m on the Phillies here. I just think that Luzardo’s the better option in this game, especially when you consider that he’s been much stronger at home and Peterson has been getting cranked in a lot of his recent outings. The Phillies are also in far better form right now and I think they add to the Mets’ misery with another W here. Give me the Phillies.