MLB Player Prop Picks 08/01/2025 Picks (National League Pitchers)

Bryce Elder Over 2.5 Earned Runs

Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds 12:40 PM EST

Byce Elder has been pitiful for the Braves this season. He comes into this one with a 4–7 record, a 6.29 ERA, and a 1.61 WHIP, while striking out 73 batters, equating to approximately 7.52 K/9. He comes off a start where he allowed 8 earned runs to a bad Texas Rangers lineup. We’ve also seen him give up 3+ runs in 8 of his last 10 starts. Now he has to pitch in Great American Ballpark, which is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league. I wouldn’t be surprised if Elder gives up 3+ earned runs in the first few innings of this game. 

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David Peterson Under 2.5 Earned Runs

San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets 7:10 PM EST

David Peterson has been a reliable and standout presence in the Mets’ rotation throughout the 2025 season. With over 20 starts and 121.0 innings, he comes into this one with a 7–4 record, 2.83 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and has collected 101 strikeouts, ranking him among the National League’s better starters in these key categories. He’s allowed 1 or fewer runs in each of his last 4 starts. In his last start, he faced this same Giants team and pitched lights out. This Giants team is in one of its coldest stretches of the season. Expect Peterson to have another great outing against this struggling Giants team. 

Nick Pivetta Under 2.5 Earned Runs

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres 9:40 PM EST

Nick Pivetta has had a solid season so far, making 21 starts and logging 121⅔ innings. He comes into this one with a 10–3 record, posting a sparkling 2.81 ERA, and maintaining a 0.99 WHIP, while punching out 131 batters, resulting in an elite 9.69 K/9. This strikeout rate ranks him 20th in MLB, and among the top ten in both ERA and WHIP for qualified starters. He’s allowed 2 or fewer runs in each of his last 6 starts. He’s been great in Petco Park as well. To add to that, he’ll be up against this Cardinals lineup that has struggled away from St. Louis this season. I don’t see this being the start where Pivetta takes a step back from what he’s been doing on the mound.