| MATCHUP |
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| Where |
Event Location |
| When |
Monday, July 13, 2026 |
| Time |
08:00 PM EDT |
In this article we will formulate a Home Run Derby prediction for this MLB contest on Monday, July 13th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for the Home Run Derby.
2025 Results
In 2025, we had Matt Olson, Cal Raleigh, Jazz Chisholm Jr, Byron Buxton, Oneil Cruz, Junior Caminero, Brent Rooker, and James Wood in the competition. Oneil Cruz (21), Junior Caminero (21), Byron Buxton (20), and Cal Raleigh (17) all advanced out of the first round. Cal Raleigh (19) defeated Oneil Cruz (13), while Junior Caminero (8) defeated Byron Buxton (7) in the semifinals. In the finals, Cal Raleigh defeated Junior Caminero by a total of 18-15 to win the title.
2026 Format
We have a change to the Home Run derby format this year. Instead of each batter getting a set timer for each round, they will get a set number of swings. In round one, each batter gets 20 swings, but they only get 15 swings in rounds two and three. If a player hits a home run on his final swing of any round, they can keep going until they don’t hit one out. For a tiebreaker, round one will be settled by home run distance, while rounds two and three will be settled by a three swing “swing off”. Let’s take a look at the contestants:
Bryce Harper +850
Bryce Harper has 20 home runs so far this season and we know he has the power to win this contest. Harper has competed in the Derby two other times, which resulted in second place in 2013 and first place in 2018. Harper hit 45 home runs in the 2018 Derby and 25 home runs in the 2013 Derby.
Munetaka Murakami +500
Munetaka Murakami has battled injuries in the first half of the season, but he has plenty of power and should have a ton of support around the world in this contest. Murakami has hit 20 home runs so far this season, but he has only played in 60 games, which is a home run every 10.55 at-bats.
Jac Caglianone +650
Jac Caglianone hasn’t had the best season when looking at home runs, but he hits the ball very hard and has had plenty of power through his baseball career. Caglianone has 15 home runs so far this year, but he has played in 90 games.
Ben Rice +850
Ben Rice has had a fantastic season so far in 2026, but I am not sure how many people thought he would be the one representing the Yankees here. Rice has hit 29 home runs in 91 games and he has been the best Yankee hitter by a wide margin.
Kyle Schwarber +310
Kyle Schwarber comes into this contest with a ton of hype and a lot of expectations, as he has unlimited power and is playing at his home field. Schwarber did compete in the 2018 Home Run Derby, but finished second. Schwarber has hit 32 home runs this year in 93 games.
Junior Caminero +425
Junior Caminero competed in the 2025 Home Run Derby, but he finished second to Cal Raleigh. Caminero has had a great season and he is putting up very strong power numbers. Caminero has hit 28 home runs in 94 games this year.
Jordan Walker +750
Jordan Walker had a very disappointing start to his career, but he has been on fire in 2026 and is still very early in his MLB career. Walker is another player that has crazy exit velo and I think he could make a deep run. Walker has hit 22 home runs in 93 games this season.
Willson Contreras +1300
Willson Contreras comes into this contest with the longest odds to win the Derby, so it will be interesting to see how he does. Contreras has been involved in some on field drama in recent weeks, but he has been a great hitter for the Red Sox. Contreras has hit 20 home runs in 88 games this year.
Home Run Derby Prediction
The MLB Home Run Derby is always a must watch event during the All-Star break and it will be refreshing to see a slightly different format. We saw Cal Raleigh lift the trophy last season, who was one of the “favorites” going into the competition. I think Caminero has a nice advantage after competing last season, while Schwarber has the perfect swing for a Home Run Derby. I don’t want to pick Schwarber as the favorite, so I am going to back Jordan Walker, who has been on a mission to prove people wrong this year.
David Racey's Pick: Jordan Walker +750
