Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 7/17/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Twins vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, July 17th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have a 54-42 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL Central. They have a 27-19 home record and are coming off an 8-4 road win against the Reds. They will face the Tigers and the Pirates next.

The Chicago Cubs have a .244 batting average this season, .336 OBP and .411 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 4.33 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the team’s best hitter with a .291 batting average and also adds a team-high 21 home runs, while Dansby Swanson leads the team in RBI with 58.

Colin Rea (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Chicago Cubs, and he has a 7-5 record, 4.75 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.

Minnesota Twins Preview

The Minnesota Twins have a 48-49 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the AL Central. They have a 22-24 away record and are coming off a 4-2 home win against the Angels. They will face the Guardians and the Athletics next.

The Minnesota Twins have a .248 batting average this season, .323 OBP and .415 Slugging percentage. Minnesota’s pitching staff has a 4.62 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Byron Buxton is the team’s best hitter with a .271 batting average and also adds a team-high 25 home runs, while Josh Bell leads the team in RBI with 60.

Bailey Ober (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Minnesota Twins, and he has a 6-3 record, 4.40 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

Minnesota Twins @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: July 17, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Colin Rea      Record this season: 7-5      ERA: 4.75
• Home Record: 3-1
• Last 5 against Twins: 1-1

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Twins have lost eight of their last nine games against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Cubs have won seven of their last eight night games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in six of their last seven games.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against National League opponents.
• The Twins have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 11 games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Twins have lost the first inning in four of their last five road games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in each of their last five home games against opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober      Record this season: 6-3      ERA: 4.40
• Road Record: 1-3
• Last 5 against Cubs: –

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• The Twins have won six of their last seven games as road underdogs.
• The Cubs have lost six of their last eight games as home favorites against American League opponents.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 games against AL Central opponents following a win.
• The Twins have covered the run line each of their last four games at Wrigley Field against teams that held a winning record.
• The Twins have won the first inning in four of their last five road games.
• The Twins have led after 3 innings in four of their last five road games.
• The Twins have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven night games against the Cubs.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Twins’ last 10 road games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Cubs’ last four home games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the Twins’ last eight games at Wrigley Field.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Cubs’ last four games against American League opponents.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit a home run in four of the Cubs’ last five home games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Colin Rea has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last seven Friday appearances.
• Carson Kelly has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against AL Central opponents.
• Colin Rea has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in night games against AL teams that held a losing record.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong is one of only three players to record 10+ Home Runs and 4+ Triples this season.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Kody Clemens has hit a home run in three of the Twins’ last four road games.
• Bailey Ober has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his seven previous Friday appearances in night games with the Twins as underdogs.
• Josh Bell has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Bailey Ober has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances in night games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks this season (417).
• The Cubs rank 29th in the league for home runs allowed this season (148).
• The Twins are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both home runs and batting average this season.
• The Twins rank 6th in the league for runs scored this season (471).

Twins vs Cubs Prediction

Both teams are tied 3-3 in their last 6 meetings but the Cubs have won their last two meetings in Chicago.

In this Twins vs Cubs Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -135 road favorites. The Cubs have been solid at home and Rea has been excellent at home with a 3-1 record and 2.72 ERA. In his only start against the Twins last season he only gave up one run in 7 innings of work and the Cubs have a slightly better offense, ranking 5th in baseball and the Twins have the second-worst bullpen. Ober has been in bad form, having given up 16 runs across his last three road starts while having a 7.66 road ERA this season. I expect the Cubs to take care of business at home in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Chicago Cubs ML