Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 07/29/2025 Picks

The Boston Red Sox and the Minnesota Twins meet Tuesday in MLB action from Target Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Boston Red Sox will trot out Lucas Giolito for the start here and Giolito is 6-2 with a 3.97 ERA and 72 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against Minnesota, Giolito is 1-2 with a 4.18 ERA and 30 strikeouts. Minnesota did not have a starting pitcher announced at the time that this article was posted.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to rebound from a 5-4 loss at the hands of the Twins on Monday to slip to 57-51 on the year. After this series, the Red Sox will head home for a series against the Houston Astros.

Red Sox Looking To Rebound After Frustrating Loss To Start Series

Alex Bregman has 70 hits including 19 doubles along with 13 home runs and 41 RBIs this season. Trevor Story’s added 98 hits with 15 home runs, 61 RBIs and 17 stolen bases while Jarren Duran has 110 hits with 26 doubles, 12 triples, 9 home runs, 55 RBIs and a team-high 16 stolen bases. Kristian Campbell’s added 51 hits with 10 doubles, 6 homers and 21 RBIs while Wilyer Abreu has 20 home runs with 55 RBIs and 5 stolen bases and Ceddanne Rafaela has 14 homers, 21 doubles, 2 triples, 48 RBIs and 14 stolen bases this season.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Twins have lost each of their last four games following a win.
• The Red Sox have won 12 of their last 13 games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last six games against AL Central opponents following a road loss.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games against American League opponents following a home win.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Lucas Giolito has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances with the Red Sox as favorites.
• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last eight night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Alex Bregman has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox’s last three games against AL Central opponents.
• Lucas Giolito has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last eight appearances at Target Field.
• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one Double in each of the Red Sox’s last five night games against AL opponents that held a losing record.

Minnesota Twins Recap

The Minnesota Twins come into this game looking to add on to their win over the Red Sox from Monday to improve to 51-55 this season. After this series, the Twins will head on the road for a series against the Cleveland Guardians.

Twins Looking To Keep Momentum Going

Byron Buxton has 92 hits along with 14 doubles, a team-high 23 home runs and 59 RBIs with 17 stolen bases and 4 triples while Carlos Correa has 88 hits with 19 doubles and Willi Castro has 74 hits with 15 doubles as well. Harrison Bader’s added 12 home runs and 38 RBIs while Buxton’s contributed a team-high 97 strikeouts as well this season. Ty France has also added 87 hits, 19 doubles, 6 home runs and 44 RBIs and Trevor Larnach’s chipped in 84 hits with 15 doubles, 13 home runs and 43 RBIs as well this season.

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• The Twins have won eight of their last nine games as underdogs against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last four games as favorites against AL Central opponents.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven night games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Twins have covered the run line in each of their last nine Tuesday games as underdogs.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Byron Buxton has hit at least one home run in two of his last three home appearances against the Red Sox.
• Ryan Jeffers has recorded at least one Double in six of his last seven appearances with the Twins as home underdogs.
• Byron Buxton has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against the Red Sox.
• Byron Buxton ranks 7th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.561) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Four of the Red Sox’s last five night games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Three of the Twins’ last four night games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Prediction

I’m thinking about backing Boston here. I get the case to be made for the Twins after starting the series with a win on Monday, but the thing here is that the Twins haven’t really been a team to string together wins in bunches, and Giolito’s had a tendency to be better and more effective on the road for much of the season. It’ll be interesting to see how sustainable it is going forward, but I think the Red Sox can exact some revenge here. Give me Boston in this one.