Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction 5/28/25 MLB Picks

The Miami Marlins are visiting the San Diego Padres on Wednesday, May 28th at the Petco Park in the third game of this series, with the Padres having a 2-0 lead. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction. We will examine:

The San Diego Padres’ recent form and player performance

The Miami Marlins’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the San Diego Padres

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Miami Marlins

Recent betting trends in games played between the Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres game

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 31-22 record this season and are sitting in second place in the NL West. They have an 18-8 home record and are 22-29 in over/under. The Padres are coming off an 8-6 home victory over the Marlins and have three consecutive wins. Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games, and they are playing the Giants and the Pirates next. 

The Padres have a .253 batting average this season, a .318 OBP, and a .391 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.54 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.  Manny Machado leads the Padres with 62 hits and a team-high .316 batting average. Gavin Sheets leads the team in RBI, with 31, while Fernando Tatis Jr. adds a team-high 13 home runs. 

Kyle Hart (L) will take the mound for the Padres, and he has a 2-2 record, 6.00 ERA, and 1.38 WHIP. He has been much better at home, with a 1.64 ERA across two home starts. This will be his first career start against the Marlins.   

Miami Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins have a 21-32 record this season and are sitting in last place in the NL East. The Marlins have an 8-17 road record and are 31-22 in over/under. They are coming off a 6-8 road defeat by the Padres, and are 2-5 in their last 7 games. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 games, and they are playing the Rockies and the Giants next.

The Marlins have a .250 batting average this season, a .314 OBP, and a .385 slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 5.24 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.  Kyle Stowers leads the Marlins with 55 hits, adding team-highs in RBI with 32, in home runs with 10, and is the team’s best hitter with a .299 batting average.

Sandy Alcantara (R) will take the mound for the Marlins, and he has a 2-7 record, 8.04 ERA, and 1.57 WHIP. He has been terrible on the road with a 12.64 ERA across four road starts, and he has given up 4+ runs in each of his last five starts. Sandy Alcantara has a record of 2-2 with an ERA of 2.84 and 25 strikeouts in 5 appearances against the Padres in his career.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last nine home games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have lost 12 of their last 13 games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last eight home games against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line each of their last four day games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games at Petco Park against National League opponents.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven home day games.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Padres have lost five of their last seven games as favorites.
• The Marlins have won four of their last five day games against the Padres following a loss.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six day games against the Marlins following a win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last five day games against the Padres following a loss.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in each of their last three games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five day games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Marlins’ last nine day games against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Padres’ last six home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last six games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last five games against National League opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (376).
• The Padres rank 3rd in the league for hits allowed this season (391).
• The Marlins rank 27th in the league for ERA this season (5.24).
• The Marlins rank 27th in the league for runs allowed this season (297).

Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction

The Padres are 9-3 in their last 12 meetings against the Marlins, and are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings in San Diego. Under is 6-2 in their last 8 meetings in San Diego.

In this Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -165 home favorites. The Padres are rightfully favored in this spot, as they have a far better record this season and have dominated at home, while the Marlins have been terrible on the road. San Diego has the 7th-best bullpen in the majors and is up against a struggling Sandy Alcantara, who has been a dumpster fire this season.

Alcantara has been even worse on the road and is coming into this matchup in terrible form. On top of that, the Marlins are even weaker against lefties, scoring just 3.1 runs per game against left-handed pitching, and I think they don’t stand a chance in this game. Take the San Diego Padres on the runline for an easy home victory.