Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 9/23/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, September 23rd at the Citizens Bank Park in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 92-64 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the NL East. They have a 51-24 home record, and are 70-76 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-9 road defeat by the Dbacks, and are 1-3 in their last four games. They are playing the Twins next.

The Phillies have a .260 batting average this season, .330 OBP and .431 Slugging percentage. Philly’s pitching staff has a 3.88 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Trea Turner leads the Phillies with 179 hits and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .305 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 129 RBI and a team-high 53 home runs.

Cristopher Sanchez (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 13-5 record, 2.66 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

Miami Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins have a 76-80 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the NL East. The Marlins have a 40-38 road record and are 79-72 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-2 road victory over the Rangers, and have six consecutive wins. Over is 4-2 in their last 6 games and are playing the Mets next.

The Marlins have a .252 batting average this season, .316 OBP and .397 slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.63 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  Xavier Edwards leads the Marlins with 152 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .281 batting average. He also adds a team-high 25 home runs, while Otto Lopez leads the team in RBI, with 77.

Edward Cabrera (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, and he has a 7-7 record, 3.57 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: September 23, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez      Record this season: 13-5      ERA: 2.66
• Home Record: 6-0
• Last 5 against Marlins: 3-0

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last 12 home games following a loss.
• The Marlins have lost each of their last eight night games against NL East opponents following a road win.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight night games against NL East opponents following a road win.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last seven home games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last six Tuesday games as home favorites.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in each of their last three night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last nine Tuesday games against opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Edward Cabrera      Record this season: 7-7      ERA: 3.57
• Road Record: 2-4
• Last 5 against Phillies: 1-1

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The road team has won each of the Marlins’ last seven games.
• The Phillies have lost six of their last eight Tuesday games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in seven of their last eight road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line each of their last four home games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in each of their last six Tuesday games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have lost the first inning in four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Phillies’ last seven games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Marlins’ last four road games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last 11 games as favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last seven games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Bryce Harper has recorded at least one Double in three of the Phillies’ last four home games against the Marlins.
• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in each of the Phillies’ last two home games.
• Bryson Stott has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks T2nd in the league in Home Runs (53) this season.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Edward Cabrera has recorded five or more strikeouts in 11 of his last 12 appearances in night games.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 Tuesday appearances against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in four of his last six appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Kyle Stowers has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (422).
• The Phillies rank 3rd in the league for hits this season (1381).
• The Marlins rank 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1203).
• The Marlins are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction

The Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 head-to-head meetings against the Marlins, and are 2-1 in their last 3 meetings in Philadelphia. Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 meetings.

In this Marlins vs Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -225 home favorites. The Phillies have been struggling since they clinched their playoff spot, while on the other hand, the Marlins still have mathematical chances for a Wild Card spot, and are playing their best baseball of the season in the best possible time. But Cabrera has been unstable for the Marlins lately, with 4+ earned runs in three of his last four starts, and he has been weaker on the road. the Marlins have also been terrible against left-handed pitching, so I like the Philles to win this one comfortably and cover the runline.