Mets vs Phillies Prediction 7/16/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, July 16th at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 40-57 this season after they lost all three games against the Red Sox by scores of 2-6, 0-4, and 2-3. In game three, New York led 2-0 in the ninth inning, but they blew the save and couldn’t score in the 10th for the loss. The Mets recorded six hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Lindor, who went 2-4 with one home run and two RBIs. Thornton allowed two hits and zero earned runs over 7.0 innings, while Williams blew the save and Raley got the loss. Prior to that series, New York won two out of three against the Royals and split four games with the Braves. 

This season, New York has a 4.31 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .239 opponent batting average, while they have scored 396 runs with a .234 batting average and a .304 on base percentage. Juan Soto has led the Mets with 21 home runs and 51 RBIs, while Bo Bichette has added 10 home runs and 51 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Christian Scott, who is 2-1 with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 54.0 innings pitched this season. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 54-43 this year after they won two out of three against the Tigers by scores of 2-10, 4-2, and 5-0. In game three, Philadelphia took the lead in the third inning and never looked back in the shutout win. The Phillies recorded nine hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Realmuto, who went 2-3 with three RBIs. Wheeler allowed two hits and zero earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Alvarado threw a scoreless inning in relief. Prior to that series, Philadelphia won two out of three against the Reds, but lost two out of three against the Royals before that. 

This season, Philadelphia has a 4.23 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and a .255 opponent batting average, while they have scored 424 runs with a .236 batting average and a .303 on base percentage. Kyle Schwarber has led the Phillies with 32 home runs and 59 RBIs, while Bryce Harper has added 20 home runs and 57 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Aaron Nola, who is 3-6 with a 5.75 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 97.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last 16 games as underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have won eight of their last nine night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as road underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as home favorites against the Mets.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 home games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games as underdogs against NL East opponents.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Phillies have lost five of their last six games following a road win.
• The road team has won six of the Mets’ last eight games.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night games following a road win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last four night games following a home loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Four of the Mets’ last five games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Phillies’ last five games as favorites against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the last seven night games between the Mets and Phillies.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Mets’ last six night games at Citizens Bank Park.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Trea Turner has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four games at Citizens Bank Park.
• Bryson Stott has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last nine home games.
• Brandon Marsh is one of only five players to hit over .300 and have 45+ RBIs this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Carson Benge has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four games as road underdogs against NL opponents.
• Christian Scott has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his five previous appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 11 games against NL opponents.
• Juan Soto ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.562) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 28th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.303).
• The Phillies are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
• The Mets rank 3rd in the league for strikeouts this season (885).
• The Mets rank 27th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.381).

Mets vs Phillies Prediction

New York comes into this matchup 17 games below .500, they have lost three in a row, and they are 16 back in the NL East. The Mets are 19-29 on the road this year, while the Phillies are 25-21 at home. Philadelphia has won three of their last four games and they have allowed two runs or fewer in all three of those wins. The Phillies are starting Nola, who has allowed 2, 3, 7, 2, and 2 earned runs in his last five starts, while Scott has allowed 0, 3, 2, 4, and 0 earned runs in his last five outings. I don’t really trust Nola on the mound, but I like fading the Mets at this price. Take the Phillies here.

David Racey's Pick: Phillies ML