Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction 9/11/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Royals vs Guardians Prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, September 11th at the Progressive Field in the 4th game of this series, with the Royals having the 2-1 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Cleveland Guardians Preview

The Cleveland Guardians have a 74-71 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the AL Central. The Guardians have a 37-34 home record and are 67-73 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-4 home defeat by the Royals, that ended their five-game winning streak. Under is 4-1 in their last 5 games and are playing the Tigers and the White Sox next.

The Guardians have a .225 batting average this season, .297 OBP and .370 Slugging percentage. Cleveland’s pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Stephen Kwan leads the Guardians with 154 hits, while Jose Ramirez is the team’s best hitter with a .287 batting average. He also leads the team both in RBI, with 76, and in home runs with 28.

Gavin Williams (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Guardians, and he has a 10-5 record, 3.17 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.

Kansas City Royals Preview

The Kansas City Royals have a 74-72 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the AL Central. The Royals have a 34-37 road record and are 61-84 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-3 road victory over the Guardians, that ended their three-game losing streak. Under is 8-2 in their last 10 games and are playing the Mariners and the Blue Jays next.

The Royals have a .244 batting average this season, .305 OBP and .390 Slugging percentage. Kansas’ pitching staff has a 3.67 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Bobby Witt Jr. leads the Royals with 163 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .295 batting average. Vinnie Pasquantino leads the team in RBI, with 100, and a team-high 29 home runs.

Stephen Kolek (R) is the projected starter for the Royals, and he has a 5-5 record, 3.88 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.

Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians Betting Trends: September 11, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Gavin Williams      Record this season: 10-5      ERA: 3.17
• Home Record: 6-2
• Last 5 against Royals: 1-1

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Royals have lost eight of their last nine road games against AL Central opponents following a win.
• The favorites have won each of the Royals’ last seven games at Progressive Field.
• The Guardians have covered the run line each of their last nine night games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Royals have failed to cover the run line in 14 of their last 15 night games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Guardians have won the first inning in each of their last seven night games against AL Central opponents.
• The Guardians have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven night games against AL Central opponents.
• The Guardians have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games as home favorites against AL Central opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Stephen Kolek      Record this season: 5-5      ERA: 3.88
• Road Record: 3-2
• Last 5 against Guardians: 0-0

Why the Kansas City Royals will win

• The Guardians have lost three of their last four games as favorites following a loss.
• The Royals have won four of their last five Thursday games as underdogs against the Guardians.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against AL Central opponents following a home loss.
• The Royals have covered the run line in each of their last five Thursday road games.

Total Runs Facts

• Ten of the Royals’ last 12 games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Guardians’ last five games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last eight night games against AL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Royals’ last five games.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Jose Ramirez has hit a home run in three of the Guardians’ last four games as home favorites against AL Central opponents.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded a Double in four of the Guardians’ last five games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Brayan Rocchio has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians’ last 11 games against AL Central opponents.
• Jose Ramirez ranks T3rd in the league in Steals (37) this season.

Kansas City Royals Player Prop Facts

• Bobby Witt Jr. has hit a home run in four of his last eight appearances with the Royals as underdogs.
• Vinnie Pasquantino has recorded at least one hit in each of the Royals’ last 11 Thursday games.
• Bobby Witt Jr. ranks 3rd in the league in Hits (163) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Guardians rank 30th in the league for hits this season (1072).
• The Guardians rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.225).
• The Royals rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (985).
• The Royals rank 29th in the league for walks this season (385).

Royals vs Guardians Prediction

The Guardians are 6-4 in their last 10 meetings against the Royals, and are 4-2 in their last 6 meetings in Cleveland. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings.

In this Royals vs Guardians Prediction, the Guardians are coming as -140 home favorites. This is as balanced of a matchup as it gets, as both pitchers have similar ERA’s and WHIP, and they both have better home/away splits. Williams has been better at home, with a 3.00 ERA, while Kolen has been better on the road, with a 2.41 ERA. They are both coming into this matchup in good form, and both offenses are ranking on the bottom-4 of the league. The previous two games of this series had 7 and 2 total runs, and I expect another low-scoring affair today. Take the under 7.5 runs in this one.