Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Prediction 8/25/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Houston Astros and the New York Yankees meet Tuesday in MLB action from Yankee Stadium. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Houston Astros will send out Ethan Pecko for the start here and Pecko is 0-0 with a 4.91 ERA and 4 strikeouts this season. Will Warren will start for New York and is 8-6 with a 4.43 ERA and 122 strikeouts this season.

Houston Astros Recap

The Houston Astros come into this game looking to bounce back from a 7-6 loss at the hands of the Athletics last time out to sit at 65-66 this season. After this series, the Astros will head on the road for a series against the New York Mets. 

Astros Lose 6 Of Last 8

Yordan Alvarez has 148 hits with 28 doubles, 36 home runs and 90 RBIs while Christian Walker has 108 hits with 24 doubles, 23 home runs and 72 RBIs on the year. Jose Altuve’s chipped in 99 hits with 16 doubles, 14 home runs and 40 RBIs and Isaac Paredes has 118 hits with 23 doubles, 17 home runs and 71 RBIs. Cam Smith also has 90 hits with 15 doubles, 17 home runs and 48 RBIs.

New York Yankees Recap

The New York Yankees come into this game looking to add on to their 8-3 win over Toronto last time out to sit at 74-56 this season. After this series, the Yankees will take on the Boston Red Sox in a rivalry series at home.

Yankees Win 6 Of Last 7

Ben Rice has 116 hits with 20 doubles, 34 home runs and 82 RBIs and Aaron Judge has 53 hits with 10 doubles, 17 home runs and 38 RBIs. Cody Bellinger also has 98 hits with 21 doubles, 3 triples, 11 home runs and 53 RBIs. Jazz Chisholm Jr. also has 93 hits with 15 doubles, 18 home runs and 51 RBIs as well on the year.

Houston Astros @ New York Yankees Betting Trends: August 25, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Will Warren      Record this season: 8-6      ERA: 4.43
• Home Record: 4-3
• Last 5 against Astros: 1-0

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Yankees have won seven of their last eight night games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• The Astros have lost eight of their last nine night games against the Yankees following a home loss.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last seven games.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five road games.
• The Yankees have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games as favorites.
• The Astros have lost the first inning in three of their last four road games against AL opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Ethan Pecko      Record this season: 0-0      ERA: 4.91
• Road Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Yankees: –

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won seven of their last eight games as road underdogs following a loss.
• The Yankees have lost four of their last five games as favorites following a home win.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as road underdogs against AL opponents following a loss.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in 13 of their last 16 games as favorites following a home win.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven Tuesday games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Astros have led after 3 innings in each of their last three night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Astros have won the first inning in each of their last three games as underdogs against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Yankees’ last eight games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Astros’ last five games as underdogs against the Yankees have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Astros’ last seven games at Yankee Stadium.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the last seven night games between the Astros and Yankees at Yankee Stadium.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Spencer Jones has hit a home run in each of the Yankees’ last two night games.
• Trent Grisham has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Tuesday appearances.
• Jazz Chisholm ranks 4th in the league in Steals (34) this season.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Cam Smith has hit at least one home run in four of his last five road appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Yordan Alvarez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances in night games against AL East teams that held a winning record.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.613) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Yankees rank 30th in the league for hits this season (985).
• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.20).
• The Astros rank 29th in the league for steals this season (40).
• The Astros rank 29th in the league for walks allowed this season (540).

Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees Prediction

I’m on the over in this game. I don’t think either starting pitching option can really be trusted as Pecko got hit up in his last start and Will Warren’s shown some big time regression from his strong start to this season. All in all I think after the bullpens have their say, we get up and over this number so give me the over.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Over 8.5