Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 9/16/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, September 16th at the PNC Park the second game of this series, with the Cubs having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 65-86 record this season and are sitting on the last place of the NL Central. They have a 42-34 home record, and are 60-86 in over/under. They are coming off a 0-4 home defeat by the Cubs, and are 1-8 in their last 9 games. Under is 8-1 in their last 9 games are playing the Reds and the Athletics next.

The Pirates have a .230 batting average this season, .305 OBP and .348 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with 134 hits, and a team-high 71 RBI. He is also the team’s best hitter with a .243 batting average, while Oneil Cruz leads the team in home runs, with 19.

Paul Skenes (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 10-9 record, 1.92 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have an 86-64 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL Central. The Cubs have a 40-35 road record and are 67-71 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-0 road victory over the Pirates, and are 4-1 in their last 5 games. Under is 7-4 in their last 11 games and are playing the Mets and the Reds next.

The Cubs have a .249 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .427 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.83 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Nico Hoerner leads the Cubs with 163 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .299 batting average. Seiya Suzuki leads the team in RBI, with 91, while Pete Crow-Armstrong adds a team-high 29 home runs.

Cade Horton (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 10-4 record, 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.

The Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends: September 16, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Paul Skenes      Record this season: 10-9      ERA: 1.92
• Home Record: 6-4
• Last 5 against Cubs: 2-1

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Cubs have lost four of their last five night games against the Pirates following a road win.
• The Pirates have won eight of their last nine games as home favorites against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as home favorites.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games against the Pirates following a win.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in nine of their last 12 night games against National League opponents.
• The Cubs have lost the first inning in three of their last four road games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games as home favorites against National League opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Cade Horton      Record this season: 10-4      ERA: 2.70
• Road Record: 7-3
• Last 5 against Pirates: 0-0

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last seven games as road underdogs against the Pirates.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last six home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as road underdogs against the Pirates.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine night games against the Pirates.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs’ last seven night games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the last eight games between the Cubs and Pirates have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last four games between the Cubs and Pirates.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 12 of the Cubs’ last 15 games against NL Central opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in five of the Pirates’ last six games as home favorites against the Cubs.
• Oneil Cruz has recorded a Double in three of the Pirates’ last four games as home favorites against the Cubs.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last 12 games as favorites against the Cubs.
• Paul Skenes ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (1.92) this season.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Ian Happ has recorded a Double in each of the Cubs’ last six games as road underdogs against the Pirates.
• Dansby Swanson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 13 night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games against NL Central teams that held a losing record.
• Nico Hoerner ranks T6th in the league in Hits (163) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (540).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (107).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (382).
• The Cubs rank T2nd in the league for steals this season (153).

Cubs vs Pirates Prediction

The Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings against the Pirates, and are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in Pittsburgh. Under is 7-0-1 in their last 8 meetings.

In this Cubs vs Pirates Prediction, the Pirates are coming as -130 home favorites. The books are overvaluing the Pirates because Skenes is on the mound, but don’t forget that he has a 10-9 record this season. Skenes is elite, but the Pirates’ bats are ice cold right now, as the team is on a free fall lately. On the flip side, Horton has been elite for the Cubs and coming into this matchup red-hot, with a 1.44 ERA across his last 5 starts, and his only previous start against the Pirates this season was a shutout. The Cubs have a better bullpen and have the 7th-best offense in baseball, while the Pirates are dead last. Take the better team to win for plus money, take the Chicago Cubs on the moneyline.