Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 7/26/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, July 26th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 53-52 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the NL Central. They have a 27-26 home record and are coming off a 0-11 home loss against the Cubs. They will face the Dbacks and the Reds next.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a .259 batting average this season, .337 OBP and .420 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 4.30 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Nick Gonzales is the team’s best hitter with a .311 batting average. Brandon Lowe leads the team in RBI with 65, adding a team-high 21 home runs.

Braxton Ashcraft (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he has a 9-4 record, 3.95 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have a 59-45 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL Central. They have a 29-23 away record and are coming off an 11-0 road win against the Pirates. They will face the Cardinals and the Yankees next.

The Chicago Cubs have a .246 batting average this season, .339 OBP and .413 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the team’s best hitter with a .291 batting average, adding a team-high 23 home runs. Dansby Swanson leads the team in RBI with 60.

Jameson Taillon (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Chicago Cubs, and he has a 2-5 record, 5.38 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

The Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends: July 26, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Braxton Ashcraft      Record this season: 9-4      ERA: 3.95
• Home Record: 4-1
• Last 5 against Cubs: 1-1

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won each of their last seven day games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Pirates have covered the run line each of their last five day games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five day games against the Pirates following a win.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in five of their last six day games against NL Central opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jameson Taillon      Record this season: 2-5      ERA: 5.38
• Road Record: 1-3
• Last 5 against Pirates: 2-0

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last seven games as favorites against the Cubs following a loss.
• The Cubs have won 11 of their last 12 games as road underdogs against the Pirates.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites against the Cubs following a loss.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs.
• The Cubs have won the first inning in four of their last five day games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Pirates’ last nine games as favorites against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Cubs’ last four games as underdogs against the Pirates have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of Braxton Ashcraft’s last six appearances as a starter.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in nine of the Cubs’ last 10 games as underdogs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit at least one home run in three of the Pirates’ last four day games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Braxton Ashcraft has recorded a win in six of his last eight appearances with the Pirates as favorites.
• Braxton Ashcraft has recorded six or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances in day games.
• Nick Gonzales has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last nine games.
• Nick Gonzales ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.311) this season.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit a home run in each of the Cubs’ last two games.
• Jameson Taillon has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances against former teams.
• Jameson Taillon has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his last 10 appearances at PNC Park against opponents that held a winning record.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last eight games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks T4th in the league in Steals (26) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (946).
• The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (946).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks this season (455).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks this season (455).

Cubs vs Pirates Prediction

The Cubs have won their last four meetings against the Pirates, all of them in Pittsburgh. Over is 7-3 in their last 10 meetings.  

In this Cubs vs Pirates Prediction, the Pirates are coming as -125 home favorites. I like the Pirates in this one as they are looking to avoid the series sweep at home. Ashcraft has been struggling lately, but he had to face three top-10 offenses in his last three starts. He has been excellent at home with a 4-1 record and 3.68 ERA and in both of his starts against the Cubs this season he gave up one run. On the flip side, Jameson Taillon has been terrible on the road with a 6.21 ERA and has been torched in his two starts against the Pirates this season with 10 runs. Take the Pirates to win this one at home.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates ML