Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction 9/18/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Cubs vs Reds Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, September 18th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 71-82 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL Central. They have a 37-41 home record and are coming off a 2-8 home loss against the Dodgers. They will face the Braves and the Blue Jays next.

The Cincinnati Reds have a .230 batting average this season, .307 OBP and .396 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.87 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .284 batting average. Sal Stewart leads the team in RBI with 109, adding a team-high 32 home runs.

Chase Burns (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 15-3 record, 2.80 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have a 85-68 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL Central. They have a 40-35 away record and are coming off an 8-4 home win against the Braves. They will face the Marlins and the Red Sox next.

The Chicago Cubs have a .252 batting average this season, .340 OBP and .431 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the team’s best hitter with a .282 batting average, leading the team in RBI with 105, adding a team-high 44 home runs.

Clay Holmes (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 6-7 record, 2.85 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

The Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends: September 18, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Chase Burns      Record this season: 15-3      ERA: 2.80
• Home Record: 8-1
• Last 5 against Cubs: 1-0

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won each of their last six night games against NL Central opponents following a home loss.
• The Cubs have lost five of their last six games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a home win.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against NL Central opponents following a home win.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last six night games against the Cubs following a loss.
• The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games at Great American Ball Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Cubs have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against NL Central opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Clay Holmes      Record this season: 6-7      ERA: 2.85
• Road Record: 3-4
• Last 5 against Reds: 1-1

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Reds have lost seven of their last eight night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have won each of their last five road games following a home win.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in eight of their last nine road games against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games.
• The Cubs have won the first inning in each of their last four games against the Reds.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last six games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last four games between the Cubs and Reds have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Cubs’ last four night games against NL opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Cubs’ last eight games as road favorites against NL opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in nine of the Reds’ last 10 games against NL Central opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Sal Stewart has hit a home run in each of the Reds’ last three games against the Cubs.
• Chase Burns has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last 10 appearances.
• Sal Stewart has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 27 games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Chase Burns has recorded a win in six of his last seven home appearances against NL opponents.
• Chase Burns ranks T3rd in the league for Wins (15) this season.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Alex Bregman has hit at least one home run in four of his last five appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Clay Holmes has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Clay Holmes has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances in night games.
• Nico Hoerner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (44) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Reds rank 30th in the league for hits this season (1168).
• The Reds rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.230).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for runs scored this season (817).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (211).

Cubs vs Reds Prediction

The Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings against the Reds and have won their last two visits in Cincinnati.  

In this Cubs vs Reds Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -125 road favorites. I like the Reds in this one with Chase Burns on the mound, who has been elite this season and one of the best home pitchers in baseball, with an 8-1 record and 2.09 ERA at home. The Reds also have a better bullpen ERA than the Cubs in their last 5 games and the Cubs have lost their last four games on the road. Take the Reds in this one at home for plus money.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML