Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Prediction MLB Picks 9/4/24

The Boston Red Sox and the New York Mets meet Wednesday in MLB action from Citi Field. Here’s a Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets prediction. This will be the final installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Red Sox vs Mets pick. We will examine:

The Boston Red Sox’s recent form and player performance

The New York Mets’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Boston Red Sox

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the New York Mets

Recent betting trends in games played between the Red Sox and Mets

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Red Sox vs Mets game

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

Over the weekend the Red Sox played the Detroit Tigers. Boston won the opener then fell in the next two games to drop the series. After a loss 4-1 to the Mets on Monday, in game two the Red Sox faltered in a 7-2 loss. Starter Kutter Crawford lasted 6.0 innings with two earned runs.

In the starter slot for Wednesday the Red Sox are going with Tanner Houck. This year Houck is 8-9 with a 3.12 ERA in 27 starts. Over his career, Houck is 23-28 with a 3.56 ERA in 101 games (68 starts).

New York Mets Betting Preview

Over on the Mets’ side, they played the struggling White Sox in their weekend set and won all three games. In the Tuesday matchup, New York scored four runs in the eighth inning to cap the victory.

The starter for Wednesday will be the Mets’ Tylor Megill. This year Megill is 3-5 with a 4.82 ERA in 11 games (10 starts). Megill is 20-21 with a 4.73 ERA in 69 games (62 starts) over his career.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last four games as favorites against NL East opponents has gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Mets’ last six games as underdogs against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last five night games at Citi Field.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last three games.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Tylor Megill has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances against AL opponents.
• Tylor Megill has recorded a win in three of his four previous home appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one RBI in seven of his eight previous appearances at Citi Field against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Francisco Lindor has scored at least one run in each of the Mets’ last six games.
• Jeff McNeil has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against the Red Sox.
• Jeff McNeil has recorded a Single in each of his last seven appearances against the Red Sox.
• Jeff McNeil has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 12 appearances against the Red Sox.
• J.D. Martinez has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games against AL East teams that held a winning record.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Danny Jansen has recorded a Double in six of his last seven appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL opponents.
• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 13 appearances with the Red Sox as road favorites against NL opponents.
• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances with the Red Sox as road favorites against NL opponents.
• Tyler O’Neill has recorded at least one Single in each of his seven previous appearances at Citi Field.
• Tyler O’Neill has hit at least one home run in each of his last two appearances with the Red Sox as favorites against NL opponents.
• Wilyer Abreu has recorded an RBI in each of his last four appearances with the Red Sox as road favorites.
• Tyler O’Neill has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances with the Red Sox as favorites against NL opponents.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Prediction

I’m leaning Mets. It’ll depend on what the starters do, though. Megill is 1-0 in his last two appearances with two earned in 7.1 innings combined. As for Houck, he gave up six earned in 6.0 innings on August 25 to the Diamondbacks but came back with 6.0 clean frames versus Detroit in his next start.

On Tuesday the Mets got a nice start from David Peterson, who went 6.0 frames with one earned and 11 Ks. Overall the pen wasn’t terrible (though Jose Butto gave up a run) and the three homers on offense certainly helped. I think New York’s got a good chance at another W on Wednesday.