Pick details
| MATCHUP | Boston Red Sox | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 45-48 | 40-56 |
| Spread | -1.5 135 | +1.5 -163 |
| Moneyline | -126 | +104 |
| Total | Over 8 (-118) | Under 8 (-102) |
| Where | Citi Field, Queens, New York | |
| When | Sunday, July 12, 2026 | |
| Time | 01:40 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Boston Red Sox are 45-48 on the year and play the Rays and Orioles next. The Boston Red Sox are batting .244 on the season, have a .315 OBP, and have a .389 slugging percentage. The Boston Red Sox pitching staff has a 3.61 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. Ceddanne Rafaela leads the Boston Red Sox with 95 hits and 39 RBI, while Wilyer Abreu and Willson Contreras have combined for 181 hits and 104 RBI.
Payton Tolle gets the ball for the Boston Red Sox, and he is 5-6 with a 3.14 ERA and 80 strikeouts this season. This will be Tolle’s first career game against the New York Mets.
New York Mets Betting Preview
The New York Mets are 40-56 on the year and play the Phillies and Brewers next. The New York Mets are batting .234 on the season, have a .304 OBP, and have a .381 slugging percentage. The New York Mets’ pitching staff has a 4.31 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. Bo Bichette leads the New York Mets with 97 hits and 51 RBI, while Carson Benge and Juan Soto have combined for 173 hits and 88 RBI.
Zach Thornton gets the ball for the New York Mets, and he is 0-1 with a 4.35 ERA and 10 strikeouts this season. This will be Thornton’s first career game against the Boston Red Sox.
Why the New York Mets will win
- The Mets have won each of their last four games as home underdogs against American League opponents following a loss.
- The Red Sox have lost three of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents.
- The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as home underdogs against AL East opponents following a loss.
- The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as favorites against National League opponents following a road win.
Why the Boston Red Sox will win
- The Red Sox have won each of their last eight games.
- The Mets have lost each of their last six games as home underdogs.
- The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last eight games.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six day games against AL East opponents following a home loss.
- The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in 10 of their last 12 games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The Mets have lost the first inning in three of their last four day games.
- The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in nine of their last 11 games as underdogs.
Total Runs Facts
- Nine of the Mets’ last 11 home games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the Red Sox’s last five games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Red Sox’s last five games as favorites against National League opponents.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in five of the Mets’ last six games against American League opponents.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in each of the Mets’ last two games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
- Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in 19 of his last 20 home appearances against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts
- Andruw Monasterio has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances at Citi Field.
- Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 11 road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Prediction
The Red Sox remain one of the hottest teams in baseball, and Tolle has been strong through 80.1 innings with a 3.14 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. There’s no reason to step in front of the Red Sox, especially for a team like the Mets that continues to underachieve and come up small. Thornton has just 10.1 MLB innings under his belt, and those who have followed me over the years know I like a larger sample size with my pitchers. The jury is still out on the 24 year old. Either way, the Red Sox are on fire. Give me the road team for the sweep.
Randy Chambers's Pick: Boston Red Sox
