Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 5/28/25 MLB Picks

The Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Wednesday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Atlanta Braves will send out AJ Smith-Shawver for the start here, and Smith-Shawver is 3-2 with a 3.67 ERA and 41 strikeouts this season. This will be Smith-Shawver’s first career start against the Phillies. The Philadelphia Phillies will send out Zack Wheeler for the start here, and he is 6-1 with a 2.42 ERA and 88 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Braves, Wheeler is 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 32 strikeouts.

Atlanta Braves Recap

The Atlanta Braves come into this game looking to bounce back from a 2-0 loss at the hands of the Phillies on Tuesday to slip to 25-28 on the year. After this series, the Braves will head home for a series against the Boston Red Sox.

Braves Looking To Rebound

Austin Riley leads the Braves with 58 hits, including 8 home runs, 28 RBIs, and 9 doubles, but also has the dubious distinction of leading Atlanta with 65 strikeouts so far this season. Ozzie Albies has 49 hits with 5 home runs and 19 RBIs in addition to 5 stolen bases, and Matt Olson has 46 hits with 9 doubles, 12 home runs, and 29 RBIs of his own. Marcell Ozuna also has 47 hits with 9 home runs and 24 RBIs. Michael Harris II also has 44 hits with 9 doubles, 2 triples, 3 home runs, and 31 RBIs, and 9 stolen bases as well, and Nick Allen has 6 stolen bases as well this season.

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The underdogs have won five of the Braves’ last six games.
• The Phillies have lost three of their last four games as home favorites against National League opponents following a win.
• The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games against the Braves following a win.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Matt Olson has hit a home run in three of the Braves’ last four games as underdogs.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Braves as underdogs against the Phillies.
• Alex Verdugo has scored at least one run in 10 of his last 11 appearances with his team as a road underdog against NL East opponents.
• Matt Olson has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Braves’ last six road games.
• Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one Single in each of his last nine Wednesday appearances against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Michael Harris has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Marcell Ozuna ranks 5th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.425) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game looking to add on to their 2-0 win over the Braves from Tuesday’s matchup to sit at 35-19 on the year. After this series, the Phillies will duke it out against the Milwaukee Brewers at home.

Phillies Get Back On Track

Nick Castellanos has 55 hits with 13 doubles, including 4 home runs and 29 RBIs, while Kyle Schwarber has 49 hits with a team-high 18 home runs and 40 RBIs as well on the year. Bryce Harper has 8 stolen bases, 8 home runs, and 33 RBIs. Trea Turner also has 65 hits with a team-high 14 stolen bases. Max Kepler has 11 doubles and Bryson Stott has 5 doubles, 2 triples, 4 homers, and 24 RBIs, while Stott also has 10 stolen bases this season.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last 11 night games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Braves have lost each of their last five night games against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have covered the run line each of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven road games against National League opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Max Kepler has recorded a Double in each of his last four appearances against NL opponents.
• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in four of the Phillies’ last six night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Trea Turner has scored at least one run in each of the Phillies’ last seven games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one Single in each of his last nine appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last 11 appearances against NL East opponents.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 appearances in night games.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances.
• J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last nine Wednesday night appearances at Citizens Bank Park.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks T3rd in the league in Home Runs (18) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Braves’ last nine road games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Phillies’ last seven home games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

I’m on the Phillies here. I think the Braves’ best chance at a win in this series was with Spencer Strider on the bump, and another may not come until Chris Sale is slated to start later this week. That being said, Zack Wheeler is pitching at an ace level and is just a quality start machine. I think the Phillies will tee off on Smith-Shawver and get the win here. Give me the Phillies.