Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 5/18/25 MLB Picks

The Atlanta Braves and the Boston Red Sox meet Sunday in MLB action from Fenway Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Atlanta Braves will start Spencer Schwellenbach here, and Schwellenbach is 2-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 46 strikeouts this season. This will be Schwellenbach’s second career start against the Red Sox. The Boston Red Sox will trot out Brayan Bello for the start here, and Bello is 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA and 17 strikeouts this season. In his career, Bello is 1-0 with a 3.75 ERA and 9 strikeouts against the Braves.

Atlanta Braves Recap

The Atlanta Braves come into this game looking to bounce back from a 7-6 loss at the hands of the Red Sox on Saturday to fall to 23-23 on the year. After this series, the Braves will head on the road for a divisional rematch series against the Nationals.

Braves Sink Back To .500

Austin Riley leads the Braves with 53 hits, including 8 home runs, 27 RBIs, and 8 doubles, but also has the dubious distinction of leading Atlanta with 56 strikeouts so far this season. Ozzie Albies has 41 hits with 5 home runs and 16 RBIs in addition to 5 stolen bases, and Matt Olson has 39 hits with 6 doubles, 9 home runs, and 24 RBIs of his own. Marcell Ozuna also has 38 hits with 7 home runs and 19 RBIs. Michael Harris II also has 40 hits with 8 doubles, 2 triples, 3 home runs, 25 RBIs, and 7 stolen bases as well, and Nick Allen has 5 stolen bases as well this season.

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Braves have won seven of their last eight games against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last six games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against NL East opponents.
• The Braves have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games at Fenway Park against teams that held a losing record.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Sean Murphy has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Braves as road favorites.
• Matt Olson has hit a home run in each of the Braves’ last three games against AL opponents.
• Matt Olson has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Braves’ last four games against AL opponents.
• Matt Olson has recorded at least one Single in each of the Braves’ last six road games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Michael Harris has scored a run in each of the Braves’ last five day games against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances in day games against AL teams that held a losing record.
• Marcell Ozuna ranks 4th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.415) this season.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox will look to build on their win over the Braves from Saturday’s clash to improve to 23-24 on the year. After this series, the Red Sox will welcome the New York Mets to town for another interleague home series.

Red Sox Snap Four-Game Losing Streak

Alex Bregman leads the Red Sox with 56 hits, including a team-high 6 doubles, along with 11 home runs and 34 RBIs, while Rafael Devers has added 50 hits with 13 doubles, 8 home runs, and 34 RBIs this season. Trevor Story added 41 hits with 6 home runs, 20 RBIs, and 8 stolen bases, while Jarren Duran has 53 hits with 10 doubles, 5 triples, 3 home runs, 27 RBIs, and a team-high 12 stolen bases. Kristian Campbell added 35 hits with 8 doubles, 5 homers, and 15 RBIs, while Wilyer Abreu has 11 home runs with 27 RBIs and 4 stolen bases, and Ceddanne Rafaela has 2 homers, 2 triples, 18 RBIs, and 7 stolen bases this season.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last 10 games against NL East opponents following a home win.
• The Braves have lost four of their last five games as road favorites against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Red Sox’s last eight games.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as road favorites.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Alex Bregman has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox’s last two games as underdogs.
• Jarren Duran has recorded a Double in six of the Red Sox’s last eight games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances with the Red Sox as home underdogs.
• Jarren Duran has scored at least one run in eight of the Red Sox’s last nine games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances with the Red Sox as home underdogs.
• Alex Bregman ranks T4th in the league in Hits (56) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Braves’ last six games as road favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Red Sox’s last four games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.

Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction

I’m on the Red Sox in this one. I get the case to be made for the Braves with Schwellenbach here, but I think the name brand, with Schwellenbach being one of the better starters in Atlanta’s rotation, is why they’re favored on the road here. Like the Red Sox as a whole, Bello struggled at Fenway last year and was better on the road. This year? In three starts at home, Bello has an ERA just over one. Both offenses have been back and forth in this series, and I think the Red Sox win the rubber match. Give me the Red Sox here.