Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 7/28/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet Tuesday in MLB action from PNC Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Arizona Diamondbacks will send out Brandon Pfaadt for the start here and Pfaadt is 5-1 with a 4.43 ERA and 45 strikeouts this season. Bubba Chandler will start for Pittsburgh and is 3-8 with a 4.47 ERA and 90 strikeouts this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks come into this game looking to bounce back from a 3-2 loss at the hands of the Pirates on Monday to sit at 55-52 this season. After this series, the Diamondbacks will head on the road for a series against the Cleveland Guardians.

Diamondbacks Lose 3 In A Row

Going into Monday, Corbin Carroll has 95 hits including 21 doubles, 12 triples, 15 home runs and 49 RBIs. Ketel Marte has 104 hits with 20 doubles, 3 triples, 19 home runs and 61 RBIs and Geraldo Perdomo has 83 hits, with 14 doubles, 3 triples, 8 home runs and 37 RBIs as well this season. Nolan Arenado also has 83 hits with 19 doubles, 14 home runs and 49 RBIs and Jose Fernandez has 42 hits with 3 home runs and 15 RBIs this season. Ildemaro Vargas also has 83 hits with 14 doubles, 3 triples, 7 home runs and 49 RBIs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game looking to add on to their win over Arizona from Monday’s opener to sit at 55-52 this season. After this series, the Pirates will head on the road for a series against the Cincinnati Reds.

Pirates Win Back-To-Back Games

Entering Monday, Oneil Cruz has 66 hits including 10 doubles, 14 home runs and 44 RBIs while Ryan O’Hearn has 94 hits with 13 doubles, 17 home runs and 68 RBIs this season. Nick Gonzales has 118 hits with 17 doubles and 47 RBIs while Brandon Lowe has 94 hits with 22 doubles, 21 home runs and 65 RBIs and Bryan Reynolds has 104 hits with 25 doubles, 2 triples, 14 home runs and 59 RBIs as well this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends: July 28, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Bubba Chandler      Record this season: 3-8      ERA: 4.47
• Home Record: 2-3
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 0-1

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won five of their last six games against the Diamondbacks.
• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last three games.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in 20 of their last 26 games after playing the previous day after going to extra innings.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four games.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in 10 of their last 12 games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last five Tuesday home games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt      Record this season: 5-1      ERA: 4.43
• Road Record: 3-1
• Last 5 against Pirates: 1-0

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last eight games following an extra innings win.
• The Diamondbacks have won four of their last five games as underdogs after going to extra innings.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last eight night games against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven night games against NL West opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five night games against NL West opponents.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games against NL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last four games between the Diamondbacks and Pirates at PNC Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Diamondbacks’ last four games following an extra innings loss have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Pirates’ last six games.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in nine of Brandon Pfaadt’s last 10 road appearances as a starter.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Ryan O’Hearn has hit a home run in three of the Pirates’ last four games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded two or more hits in four of his five previous home appearances against the Diamondbacks after playing the previous day.
• Bubba Chandler has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Nick Gonzales ranks 4th in the league in Hits (120) this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Max Kepler has hit a home run in three of his last four Tuesday appearances against teams that held a winning record.
• Brandon Pfaadt has recorded a win in each of his last five appearances.
• Ildemaro Vargas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances.
• Corbin Carroll is one of only eight players to record 10+ Home Runs and 4+ Triples this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (966).
• The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (966).
• The Diamondbacks rank 30th in the league for strikeouts this season (723).
• The Diamondbacks rank 30th in the league for strikeouts this season (723).

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

I’m on Arizona in this one. Bubba Chandler had a decent start last time out, but Brandon Pfaadt, while not my favorite arm in Arizona’s rotation, has been money since coming back from injury, winning all five of his starts and while Pittsburgh’s been great against righties since the all-star break, I think this is a tricky spot for them with Pfaadt in great form right now. I’ll take my chances with Arizona here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Arizona -105