Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Prediction 4/21/25 MLB Picks

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Cincinnati Reds

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Miami Marlins

Recent betting trends in games played between the Reds and Marlins

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Reds vs Marlins game

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Reds started out the year on a pretty rough skid, losing series versus the San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, and Milwaukee Brewers in their first three sets. Cincinnati finally got a series win in the rematch versus the Giants early this month, then took a sweep over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Last week, Cincinnati lost two of three versus the Mariners but then beat the Orioles 8-3 in their Friday opener. On Saturday in game two, the Reds had an early 3-2 lead but lost it quickly in an eventual 9-5 defeat. Starting pitcher Hunter Greene put up just 3.0 innings with five earned runs on six hits and two walks. TJ Friedl added four hits with two RBI, while both Jake Fraley and Austin Hayes had solo homers. 

In the Sunday finale versus Baltimore, Cincinnati went wild, scoring seven runs in the third inning and five more in the eighth, among a ridiculous win 24-2. Noelvi Marte (seven RBI), Austin Wynns (six RBI), and Elly De La Cruz (just one RBI on a solo shot) each had homers. 

In the starter slot for the Monday opener, the Reds will go with Nick Lodolo. So far this season, Lodolo is 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA in four starts. Lodolo is 17-15 with a 4.33 ERA in 51 career starts at the MLB level. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

Over on the Marlins’ side, they opened up the 2025 campaign with a four-game series win over the Pittsburgh Pirates and then a series loss versus the Mets. Miami split a pair versus the Braves, then lost two of three versus the Mets again before beating the Washington Nationals in two of three. After getting swept by the Diamondbacks last week and falling 7-2 versus the Phillies on Friday, in the Saturday matchup, the Marlins scored six runs in the ninth inning during a valiant comeback attempt but still lost 11-10 in the end. Dane Myers (three RBI; two runs) and Liam Hicks (four RBI; four hits) each had home runs in the defeat. 

On Sunday, Miami scored twice in the top of the 10th inning to complete a comeback win 7-5. Javier Sanoja paced the team with two runs, three hits, five RBI, and a home run. 

As a starter for Monday’s game, the Marlins will trot out Max Meyer. This season in his four starts, Meyer is 1-2 with a 2.63 ERA over 24.0 innings. Meyer is 4-8 with a 4.97 ERA in 17 career starts at the MLB level. 

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won three of their last four games as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have lost 14 of their last 21 games as road favorites against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five road games following a road win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in four of their last five home games against NL Central opponents.

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Marlins have lost each of their last 10 night games at LoanDepot Park following a win.
• The Reds have won each of their last 10 Monday night games.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last 11 Monday games.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven night games against the Reds following a win.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last five games against National League opponents.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in eight of their last nine night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Ten of the Reds' last 11 games as favorites against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Marlins' last nine games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Reds' last four road games against National League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in five of the Marlins' last six games at LoanDepot Park.

Reds vs Marlins Prediction 

I’ll stick with the Reds. Lodolo should be pretty good here if he can bounce back from a shaky outing versus the Mariners in his last start. Lodolo put up four earned runs on five hits and a walk in 4.2 innings during a no-decision on April 15, but his two previous outings were much better. In those matchups with the Giants and Brewers, Lodolo posted a combined 12.2 innings, no earned runs, seven hits, and one walk. As for Meyer, he’s got one good start (6.1 innings; no earned in a victory) and two fairly “blah” starts (6.0 innings; three earned in each; both losses) over his last three outings. 

Cincinnati had an insane offensive showing against a flailing Baltimore squad on Sunday, notching a ridiculous 25 team hits along the way. Monday’s matchup will doubtless be more subdued, but I still think the Reds have the significant edge.