St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 4/9/25 MLB Picks

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the St. Louis Cardinals

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Pittsburgh Pirates

Recent betting trends in games played between the Cardinals and Pirates

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Cardinals vs Pirates game

St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The Cards opened their 2025 campaign with a series versus the Minnesota Twins, taking a sweep with wins 5-3, 5-1, and 9-2. St. Louis lost their first two games of the next set versus the Los Angeles Angels but managed to stave off the sweep with a game three win. The Cardinals were swept by the Boston Red Sox 13-9, 5-4, and 18-7 over the weekend. In Monday’s matchup with Pittsburgh, St. Louis gave up four runs in the first two innings and another four in the seventh on the way to an 8-4 loss. Yohel Pozo and Masyn Winn each had solo home runs in the defeat. 

On Tuesday in game two, the Cardinals put up seven hits in a 5-3 win. Starting pitcher Sonny Gray lasted 5.0 innings with one earned run. 

Erick Fedde will take the mound for the start on Wednesday. This year so far, Fedde is 1-1 over his two starts, sporting a 7.00 ERA in total. During his MLB career, Fedde is 31-43 with a 4.85 ERA in 135 games (121 starts). 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

Over on the Pittsburgh side, their year began with a matchup versus the Miami Marlins. The Pirates only managed one win in four games during that matchup and didn’t fare much better in their next series versus the Tampa Bay Rays. Pittsburgh lost the first pair in that set ahead of a 4-2 victory in game three. It was the same with the Yankees series over the weekend; the Pirates lost 9-4 and 10-4 before a Sunday win 5-4 in extras. On Monday, Pittsburgh posted 10 team hits in their four-run victory. Joey Bart (two runs) and Andrew McCutchen (run) each had two hits and two RBI along the way. 

In game two, the Pirates got two hits, two runs, and a solo homer from Bryan Reynolds. Starter Paul Skenes had a rough day on 6.0 innings, five earned, six hits, and a walk.                

It’ll be Mitch Keller in the starting pitcher role for the Pirates on Wednesday. After his two starts this year, Keller is 1-1 with a 7.45 ERA. He’s got a 37-51 career record with a 4.63 ERA in 135 games (133 starts) total. 

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The underdogs have won each of the last four games between the Cardinals and Pirates at PNC Park.
• The Cardinals have lost six of their last seven games as road favorites against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine games as road favorites against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last eight games between the Cardinals and Pirates at PNC Park.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven games at PNC Park against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Cardinals have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a losing record.

Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win

• The Cardinals have won each of their last six Wednesday games against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have lost five of their last six day games against National League opponents.
• The Cardinals have covered the run line in four of their last five day games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four day games against National League opponents.
• The Cardinals have led after 5 innings in three of their last four day games against National League opponents.
• The Cardinals have led after 3 innings in three of their last four day games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Cardinals' last 10 games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Pirates' last five games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in eight of the Cardinals' last nine games against NL Central opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in seven of the last eight games between the Cardinals and Pirates at PNC Park.

Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction 

I’ll lean toward St. Louis. Both pitchers could use a bounce-back effort after their most recent starts, though. Fedde gave up six earned on five hits and four walks in a loss versus Boston on April 4, lasting just 3.0 innings. His first start (6.0 innings; one earned) versus the Twins was good, though. As for Keller, he gave up seven earned on eight hits and four walks versus the Yankees in a loss his last time out, lasting just 3.2 innings (also on April 4). 

The Cardinals had a shaky bullpen outing from JoJo Romero (0.1 innings; two earned), but they were able to eke out the win Tuesday following a nice offensive effort overall. St. Louis hasn’t been bad with the bats so far this series, but they’ll need a nice pitching effort to take Wednesday’s finale (and the series).