Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Prediction 3/27/25 MLB Picks

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins were 62-100 last season, and they finished last in the NL East, as they were 33 games behind the Phillies for first and nine games behind the Nationals for fourth. Miami had to deal with plenty of injuries last year, and they were the second-to-last team in the NL, as they finished 27 games behind the last Wild Card spot. On a small positive side, they did beat the Rockies by one game and finished the season on a four-game winning streak. In Spring Training, the Marlins went 10-15 this year, which was last in the Grapefruit League, and they went just 4-7-1 in their last 12 games. 

The Miami pitching staff had a 4.73 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and a .257 opponent batting average in 2024. The Miami offense scored 637 runs with a .244 batting average and a .300 on-base percentage last year. Jake Burger led Miami last season with 29 home runs, 76 RBIs, and a .250 batting average, but he is a Texas Ranger now, while Jesus Sanchez hit .252 with 18 home runs and 64 RBIs in the season. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Sandy Alcantara, who missed the 2024 season with an injury but went 7-12 with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 184.2 innings pitched in 2023. 

Why the Pirates will beat the Marlins 

• The Marlins have lost nine of their last 10 season openers.
• The road team has won seven of the Marlins' last eight games.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five home openers against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in 13 of their last 15 games at LoanDepot Park.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in four of their last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven games against NL Central opponents.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four home openers as underdogs against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Marlins' last seven home games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Pirates' last six day games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in nine of the Marlins' last 10 games.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in seven of the Pirates' last eight day games at LoanDepot Park.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Jonah Bride has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Marlins' last four games as underdogs.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one Single in 12 of his last 13 appearances with the Marlins as underdogs.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances with the Marlins as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Jonah Bride has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins' last eight games.
• Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in four of his last eight appearances with the Marlins as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Jesus Sanchez has scored at least one run in six of his last eight appearances against NL Central opponents at LoanDepot Park.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Oneil Cruz has hit a home run in each of the Pirates' last two road openers.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one Double in three of the Pirates' last four games as favorites.
• Oneil Cruz has recorded an RBI in each of his last four appearances against NL East opponents.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has recorded a Single in each of his last seven appearances with his team as a road favorite.
• Adam Frazier has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with the Pirates as favorites.
• Jack Suwinski has scored at least one run in eight of his last nine appearances with the Pirates as road favorites against NL opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins Prediction 

Both of these teams come into the 2025 season looking to start on the right foot and put last season’s disappointment behind them, but I think Pittsburgh is in a much better spot. The Pirates did have some stretches last year where they played very well, and they only ended 10 games below .500. Miami had a ton of injuries last season, and while it helps to get healthy, I need to see those players come back strong before expecting different results. The Pirates definitely have the pitching advantage with Skenes on the mound, and I like them to get the win by at least two runs here.