Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction MLB Picks 9/17/24

Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are 87-63 this year and they have won four of their last five games. Milwaukee won game one in this series by a score of 6-2 on Monday night. Prior to this series, the Brewers won two out of three against the Diamondbacks, won two out of three against the Giants, and lost two out of three against the Rockies. Milwaukee is 6-6 in their last 12 games and they are first in the NL Central. 

The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.65 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .238 opponent batting average. The Brewers' offense has scored 732 runs with a .250 batting average and a .329 on-base percentage. Willy Adames is batting .250 with 32 home runs and 109 RBI’s for the Brewers this season.

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Zack Wheeler, who is 15-6 with a 2.60 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP over 179.2 innings pitched this year. Wheeler has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Frankie Montas, who is 7-10 with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP over 138.1 innings pitched this season. Montas has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last four starts. 

Why the Phillies will beat the Brewers

• The Phillies have won each of their last four night games following a loss.
• The Brewers have lost each of their last six Tuesday night home games against National League opponents.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 Tuesday night home games against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in five of their last six road games against the Brewers following a road loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Four of the Brewers' last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Three of the Phillies' last four road games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Phillies' last three games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last three night games between the Phillies and Brewers.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• William Contreras has hit a home run in three of the Brewers' last five games as home underdogs against NL opponents.
• William Contreras has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Brewers as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Rhys Hoskins has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances with his team as a home underdog against NL East opponents.
• Frankie Montas has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last three home appearances.
• Rhys Hoskins has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with his team as a home underdog against NL East opponents.
• Rhys Hoskins has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 10 appearances with his team as a home underdog against NL East opponents.
• Brice Turang has recorded at least one Single in each of the Brewers' last six games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Gary Sanchez has recorded at least one RBI in seven of his last eight appearances against NL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Marsh has hit a home run in each of the Phillies' last two night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded a Double in four of the Phillies' last five games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Phillies' last six games against the Brewers at American Family Field.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances with the Phillies as favorites.
• Bryson Stott has recorded at least one Single in eight of his last nine road appearances after playing the previous day.
• Kyle Schwarber has scored at least one run in five of his last six road appearances against the Brewers after playing the previous day.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last six road appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies' last nine road games.
• J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one total base in each of his nine previous appearances with his team as a road favorite against the Brewers.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction 

Milwaukee was able to run away with the win in game one of this series, but both of these teams are going to win their division easily. The Brewers are 43-29 at home this season, while the Phillies are 38-34 on the road. Philadelphia has had some struggles on the road this season, but they will turn to Zack Wheeler, who has been dominant in his last eight starts. Milwaukee is starting Frankie Montas, who has been decent at times this season, but I don’t trust him. Take the Phillies -1.5 here.