Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction MLB Picks 9/16/24

Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are 86-63 this season and they have won three of their last four games. Milwaukee is coming off of a series win against Arizona, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Brewers won two out of three against the Giants, lost two out of three against the Rockies, and lost two out of three against the Cardinals. Milwaukee is 5-3 in their last eight games and they are first in the NL Central. 

The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.66 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .238 opponent batting average. The Brewers' offense has scored 726 runs with a .250 batting average and a .329 on base percentage. Willy Adames is batting .252 with 32 home runs and 109 RBI’s for the Brewers this season.

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Ranger Suarez, who is 12-6 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 138.2 innings pitched this year. Suarez has allowed four earned runs in two of his last three starts. The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Aaron Civale, who is 6-8 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 145.2 innings pitched this season. Civale has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts. 

Why the Brewers will beat the Phillies

• The Brewers have won four of their last five games as home underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have lost four of their last six games as road favorites against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games against National League opponents following a home win.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Brewers' last four games as underdogs against NL East opponents has gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Phillies' last six games as favorites against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Phillies' last five games as road favorites.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Brewers' last five games against NL East opponents.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Jackson Chourio has recorded a Double in each of the Brewers' last three night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Aaron Civale has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances at American Family Field.
• Gary Sanchez has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last seven appearances against NL East opponents.
• Jackson Chourio has scored at least one run in each of the Brewers' last six games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Aaron Civale has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with his team as an underdog against NL opponents.
• Sal Frelick has recorded at least one Single in each of the Brewers' last seven games at American Family Field against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Rhys Hoskins has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances with his team as a home underdog against NL East opponents.
• Rhys Hoskins has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances with his team as a home underdog against NL East opponents.
• Christian Yelich has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Nick Castellanos has recorded a Double in each of the Phillies' last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in three of the Phillies' last four games against the Brewers at American Family Field.
• Ranger Suarez has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Phillies as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Phillies' last five games against the Brewers at American Family Field.
• Ranger Suarez has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last seven appearances with the Phillies as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Bryson Stott has recorded at least one Single in each of the Phillies' last eight Monday games.
• Trea Turner has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies' last eight road games.
• J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one total base in each of his eight previous appearances with his team as a road favorite against the Brewers.
• Bryce Harper ranks 10th amongst qualified players for on-base percentage (.376) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Milwaukee Brewers rank 4th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.329).
• The Milwaukee Brewers are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank in the top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
• The Philadelphia Phillies rank 4th in the league for batting average this season (.258).
• The Philadelphia Phillies are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank in the top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this series leading their divisions, but the Phillies have been one of the best teams in the MLB over the last two weeks. The Phillies are 38-33 on the road, while the Brewers are 42-29 at home this year. Philadelphia plays their best baseball at home, but they have been solid on the road. The Phillies are starting Ranger Suarez, who has been pretty good this season but has struggled recently. The Brewers are going with Civale, who has been up and down this year but has been pretty good lately. Milwaukee has been solid at home all season and I don’t trust Suarez right now, so give me the Brewers here.