New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction MLB Picks 7/22/24

Marlins are Looking to Heat Up 

The Miami Marlins are 35-64 this year and they have won three of their last four games. Miami won games one and three in this series by scores of 6-4 and 4-2. Prior to this series, the Marlins lost two out of three against the Reds, lost all three against the Astros, and won two out of three against the White Sox. Miami is just 5-11 in their last 16 games and they are last in the NL East. 

The Miami pitching staff has a 4.51 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a .253 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 346 runs with a .234 batting average and a .285 on base percentage. Bryan De La Cruz is batting .237 with 16 home runs and 44 RBI’s for the Marlins this season. Miami has scored at least four runs in four of their last six games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for New York is David Peterson, who is 4-0 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP over 43.2 innings pitched this year. Peterson has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Yonny Chirinos, who is 0-1 with a 5.76 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP over 25.0 innings pitched this season. Chirinos has allowed three earned runs or more in three straight outings. 

Why the Mets will beat the Marlins

• The Marlins have lost 10 of their last 11 games against the Mets following a home win.
• The Mets have won 16 of their last 18 games against the Marlins following a loss.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven Monday games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have covered the run line in five of their last six night games at LoanDepot Park following a road loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Marlins' last seven night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Mets' last six night games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last 12 road games against National League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last five games.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in three of the Marlins' last seven home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Josh Bell has recorded an RBI in three of the Marlins' last four night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Jazz Chisholm has scored at least one run in six of his last seven appearances against NL opponents at LoanDepot Park.
• Yonny Chirinos has recorded five or more strikeouts in three of his last four home appearances.
• Bryan De La Cruz has recorded at least one Single in six of the Marlins' last seven night games.
• Jazz Chisholm has recorded at least one total base in 14 of his last 15 appearances at LoanDepot Park against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Jazz Chisholm has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his last 15 appearances at LoanDepot Park against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Nimmo has hit a home run in two of the Mets' last three night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances against the Marlins after playing the previous day.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last four appearances against NL East opponents.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one Single in eight of the Mets' last nine road games against the Marlins.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 Monday appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Starling Marte has scored at least one run in each of his last four road appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Miami Marlins rank 29th in the league for runs scored this season (346).
• The Miami Marlins rank 29th in the league for RBI's this season (337).
• The New York Mets rank 5th in the league for home runs this season (123).
• The New York Mets rank 5th in the league for doubles this season (178).

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction 

Miami has been one of the worst teams in the MLB so far this season, but they have won three of their last four games and they are looking for a nice series win here. The Marlins are 20-32 at home, while the Mets are 24-22 on the road. New York has really turned things around after a rough start to the season, but they are staring at a bad series loss if they don’t win this game. New York is starting Peterson, who has allowed some baserunners, but has done a very nice job of limiting runs. Miami is going with Chirinos, who has not pitched very well in limited work. I expect the New York offense to get to Chirinos here, so my New York Mets vs Miami Marlins prediction is for the Mets to win by at least two runs.