Utah State vs Boise State Prediction 10/3/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Utah State vs Boise State Prediction for this College Football Week 5 matchup on Saturday, October 3rd. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Boise State Broncos Preview

Boise State has a 3-1 record and are coming off a 32-7 road win against Western Michigan. They will face Fresno State and Washington State next. Offensively, Boise State averages 33.8 points per game, ranking 54th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 21.2 points per game, which is 54th. Boise State averages 440.5 total yards per game (203.5 passing and 237 rushing), while allowing 379.5 total yards per game (100.8 rushing and 278.8 passing).

Maddux Madsen leads Boise State with 814 passing yards with 63.1% completed passes and 9 touchdowns. Dylan Riley leads the team in rushing yards with 592, while Rasean Jones has a team-high 18 receptions for 271 receiving yards. Defensively, Boen Phelps has a team-high 24 total tackles (13 of them solo), while Mikaio Edward leads the team with 1.5 sacks.

Utah State Aggies Preview

Utah State has a 1-3 record and are coming off a 21-10 home win against Troy. They will face Washington State and Texas State next. Offensively, Utah State averages 13 points per game, ranking 136th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 22 points per game, which is 64th. Utah State averages 319.8 total yards per game (203.3 passing and 116.5 rushing), while allowing 368 total yards per game (139.8 rushing and 228.3 passing).

Grady Brosterhous leads Utah State with 635 passing yards with 56.1% completed passes and 4 touchdowns, also adding a team-high 222 rushing yards. Eli Wood has a team-high 23 receptions for 286 receiving yards. Defensively, Brevin Hamblin has a team-high 32 total tackles (14 of them solo), while James Jennette leads the team with 2 sacks.

Utah State Aggies @ Boise State Broncos Betting Trends: Week 5

Why the Boise State Broncos will win

• Boise State has won each of its last 21 games as an AP-ranked team against a non-AP-ranked team at Albertsons Stadium.
• Utah State has lost each of its last 11 games against AP-ranked teams.
• Utah State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last 12 road games in October.
• Boise State has covered the spread in each of its last seven home games in October.
• Boise State has won the first quarter in each of its last five games as an AP-ranked team at Albertsons Stadium.
• Boise State has won the first half in each of its last 12 October games as an AP-ranked team.

Why the Utah State Aggies will win

• Utah State has covered the spread in each of its last four games against conference opponents.
• Boise State has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games as an AP-ranked team.
• The road team has won the first quarter in three of Boise State’s last four games.
• Utah State has won the first half in 10 of its last 13 games against conference opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Utah State’s last six games as an underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Boise State’s last five home games against teams from Utah have gone OVER the total points line.

Boise State Broncos Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Travis Anderson ranks T2nd amongst FBS players for interceptions (3) this season.

Utah State Aggies Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 5, Eli Wood ranks T1st in the Pac-12 Conference for receptions (23) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Boise State ranks 1st among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (37:15).
• Boise State has had a higher time of possession than its opponents in each of its last nine games – longest active streak in the FBS.
• Utah State has lost the second quarter in each of its last five games – equal-longest active streak in the FBS.
• Utah State ranks 136th among FBS teams for points per game this season (13.0).

Utah State vs Boise State Prediction

In this Utah State vs Boise State Prediction, Boise State is coming as -20.5 home favorites. Boise has been the far better team this season, coming off three straight wins and sitting on the top-55 of the country both offensively and defensively, with a +12.6 point differential. On the flip side, Utah State has lost both its road games this season, having scored 14 points combined in those two and they are no match for the Broncos on the road. Boise State has won its last 10 meetings against Utah State and are 8-1 ATS. Take Boise State and lay the big number at home.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Boise State -20.5